The Baltimore Ravens swung and missed yet again this offseason. For at least the second time, Baltimore made a compelling offer to a free-agent wide receiver and was turned down. First, it was JuJu Smith-Schuster and this time it’s T.Y. Hilton. If you’re a Ravens fan, it’s enough to make you go nutty. But is it the massive deal everyone is making it out to be?
The answer is no, at least not for the reason you’re probably thinking.
I believe most fans appreciate that Baltimore is at least trying to sign another weapon for quarterback Lamar Jackson, something the masses have wanted for years now. But as the Ravens get rejected yet again, it’s leading many to wonder why as panic begins to set in about the team’s prospects of improving next season.
Unfortunately, there’s not a clear answer to the question. Very few players will ever publicly say why they turned down an offer, especially if there’s a chance at a pairing in the future. In this case, both Hilton and Smith-Schuster played it as cool as they could, focusing more on their current teams and how big of an offer Baltimore gave them over their reasoning for rejecting it.
That leads to speculation and assumptions. For some, it’s an easy shot to take at Jackson, who has been highly criticized since before the 2018 NFL draft. Even after he won the NFL’s MVP award in 2019 and critics became quieter, it didn’t take long for them to come back out the second Jackson struggled last season. However, I think it’s important to note that players around the league have spoken very highly of Jackson throughout his career and Dez Bryant recently went to bat for him earlier in the week. Even Hilton’s body language, when talking to Pat McAfee about the prospect of playing with Jackson, seemed to indicate it was a selling point and not an issue.
Others have instead looked at offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Offensive coordinators have often been the scapegoat of plenty of issues in Baltimore, seeing six of them join the team over the last 13 seasons. But there seems to be a little fire to that smoke this time around as players have taken not-so-thinly veiled shots at the Ravens’ run-first scheme. Bryant criticized the offense while defending Jackson, Willie Snead spoke out about the lack of opportunities now that he’s a free agent, and even Marquise Brown has been liking and retweeting posts about the issue.
Baltimore’s passing production has been a sore point for years now but was the main topic after the team ranked dead last in passing yards in 2020. However, that’s a little disingenuous of an argument to make considering the Ravens also finished last in passing attempts. According to Football Outsiders, Baltimore had the 17th-ranked passing DVOA, which is a far better metric for determining the success of a unit compared to just pure stat watching.
Still, the lack of opportunities and production really appear to be the issue at hand. When applying that filter to recent free-agent decisions, the picture becomes a lot clearer.
Both Smith-Schuster and Hilton re-signed with their former teams on one-year deals. Considering the free-agent market is historically low this offseason thanks to the reduction in salary cap, it makes far more sense both players are simply betting on themselves next year.
Think about it this way . . . If you’re a free-agent wide receiver and you want to make the most money possible next season, you’re going to want to sign with the team that gives you the best chance of putting up a career-best year. Would that be the place you’ve been your entire career, with a coaching staff and teammates that know how to maximize your potential? Or would you rather make a little more money for a year but have to uproot your entire life and family to move states away and play in an offense that throws the fewest passes in the NFL? The answer is pretty obvious.
It is a concern that Baltimore hasn’t been able to land a wide receiver yet despite plenty of attempts. But I also think this is a unique offseason that no one really knows how to handle, and it’s unfair to judge a team or player for how they’re trying to navigate it. Unfortunately, the Ravens are going to need to overpay to land a good wide receiver. It’s just the price that comes with having a run-first offense and, given the reported offers thus far, Baltimore seems to understand that themselves.
It’s not pretty and no one is happy right now. But this isn’t the offseason to go making accusations based on where players are or are not signing.
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