Perhaps the best thing the Cincinnati Bengals can do to beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Sunday’s AFC Championship game is to… well, show up and do what they’ve done before. The Bengals have famously beaten the Chiefs in each of their last three matchups, and in each of those games, defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo’s halftime adjustments (which exist, no matter what Peyton Manning says) have made life pure hell for Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes’ first-half/second-half and overtime splits in those three losses, including last season’s loss in last season’s AFC Championship game, could not be much more stark.
Mahomes in the first halves: 43 completions in 57 attempts (75.4%) for 503 yards (8.8 yards per attempt), 267 air yards (4.7 yards per attempt), six touchdowns, no interceptions, one sack, 19 pressures, and a passer rating of 136.8.
Mahomes in the second halves/OT: 25 completions in 44 attempts (56.8%) for 253 yards (5.8 yards per attempt), 129 air yards (2.9 air yards per attempt), no touchdowns, two interceptions, five sacks, 20 pressures, and a passer rating of 54.5.
Anarumo will no doubt have all kinds of bear traps for Mahomes in Sunday’s game, and that process will be accentuated to a greater or lesser degree by how much mobility Mahomes has with the high ankle sprain he suffered in the divisional round against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Anarumo-Mahomes battle is the most obvious deciding tilt in this game. If the Bengals are to beat the Chiefs for the fourth straight time, and head to their second straight Super Bowl, they’ll also have to follow these particular bullet points.
(All advanced metrics courtesy of Football Outsiders, Sports Info Solutions, and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise indicated).