The No. 16 Houston Cougars (11-1) will head to Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, OH to take on the No. 4 Cincinnati Bearcats (12-0). Kickoff for the AAC Championship Game is at 4 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Cincinnati vs. Houston odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
The Bearcats have an over 80% chance to make the College Football Playoffs with a win. With a loss, that number drops all the way down past 5%. The point being, they need to win this game.
At home, potential Heisman finalist Desmond Ridder needs to get the job done. With wins at Notre Dame and Indiana, the Bearcats are sitting pretty, but they must come out on top.
It’s the Houston Cougars who could spoil the party in Cincinnati.
They’ve been getting national respect with just one loss on the season. The Cougars’ only loss of the season was their first game against Texas Tech. They’ve been perfect since.
Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Houston at Cincinnati odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:25 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Houston +320 (bet $100 to win $320) | Cincinnati -420 (bet $420 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Houston +10.5 (-110) | Cincinnati -10.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 52.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Houston at Cincinnati odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Cincinnati 31, Houston 24
Money line
PASS on the money line with a slight lean to Houston +320. That’s just where the value is, especially with Cincinnati playing in so many close games over the past month.
Against the spread
BET on HOUSTON +10.5 (-110) as that’s just too many points for two teams that may not be that far apart in terms of talent and resume.
The Bearcats have blown out opponents in three straight games, but before this streak, they only beat Tulsa by 8 and Navy by 7. Also, Houston nears 150 yards per game on the ground, the weakness of the Bearcats defense.
They should be able to find success in the run, which propels both points and a quicker game. Houston also ranks 16th in opponents passing yards, so Ridder may struggle to find success as well.
Couple the Cougars’ strengths mixed with the Bearcats’ weaknesses, and this being a competitive game seems likely.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the OVER 52.5 (-110) as Cincinnati’s offense has been red hot. The Bearcats average the 8th-most points per game, and they should be able to again find success.
I’m also convinced the Cougars’ run game should be able to keep them in the game and on the board. Houston averages the 10th most points per game in the nation, so both teams have dynamic offenses.
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