Jameis Winston continued his trend of opening-drive interceptions on Saturday. What do these picks tell us about Winston’s NFL future?
Week 16 vs. Texans
As for the sixth of these opening picks — this is just a bad look. Houston had been pressing Tampa Bay’s receivers on the first two plays, Winston probably thought he had an easy completion to Justin Watson with cornerback Bradley Roby playing off, but he also telegraphs his intention Samuel Morse-style to throw the ball to Justin Watson, and all Roby has to do is to sit on the throw, wait until it’s too late for Watson to do anything, and take the gift home.
If there’s one thing above all I’d worry about when it comes to Jameis Winston’s NFL future, it’s the extent to which he’s unable to adapt, both pre-snap and post-snap, to coverage looks he doesn’t expect. He is the football equivalent of the pitcher who needs to get that three-run home run out of the way, and while he’s got the best fastball in the game, he’s never learned to mix in the off-speed stuff when it can benefit him.
In the NFL, the off-speed stuff is the ability to adjust and adapt to defensive disguises and alterations. Especially in today’s NFL, where coverages and personnel packages are more complex than ever, it’s a must if you ever want to be great. Back in the day, you could get away with throwing 42 picks like George Blanda did in 1962 — the Oilers came within an overtime field goal of winning the AFL championship that season. But in today’s game, all this kind of play gets you is a lot of loud outs.
When Winston came out of Florida State in the 2015 draft,
I compared him to Jay Cutler, and the comparison sticks five seasons later. Like Cutler, Winston has an indefatigable belief in the power of his arm to make throws other quarterbacks can’t make. What it turns out to be instead is that Winston makes throws other quarterbacks wouldn’t make with the power of common sense. That’s not to say he doesn’t have arm talent — he clearly does. If he didn’t, he wouldn’t be in the NFL with his mistake rate. And it’s not to say he isn’t intelligent — Arians has defended Winston over and over this season, and if you are not smart, Arians will drop you like third-period French. I’ve been fortunate enough to talk with Arians about the quarterback position a few times, and I’m sure of that.
But we also have to accept that, at a certain point in time, quarterbacks are what they are. Cutler was never able to shake the rogue gene that had him making all the throws — including all the bad ones. And if Winston is set to follow that career path, he will eventually run out of oxygen in a league that generally comes around to the idea that efficiency is more important than explosiveness at the most important position.
There will always be members of the Big Arm Club in the NFL, though, and that’s why Jameis Winston will have a long future in the league. Where that is, and what that means? I have absolutely no idea.
