A Commanders’ win on Sunday almost guarantees a playoff spot with 3 weeks remaining

A win Sunday doesn’t clinch a playoff berth for Washington or New York, but it certainly enhances the odds for the winner.

Remember when the Washington Commanders were sitting at 1-4 on the season after quarterback Carson Wentz’s pass was intercepted at the goal line in a heartbreaking loss to the Tennessee Titans in Week 5? It was Washington’s fourth consecutive loss after a season-opening win over the Jaguars.

No one was thinking about the playoffs. Many were calling for head coach Ron Rivera’s job. Some blamed Wentz. Others blamed the offensive line. There was plenty of blame to go around.

Fans were already looking ahead to the 2023 NFL draft.

The Commanders defeated the Chicago Bears in a forgettable 12-7 Thursday Night game. The most memorable part of that game was the drama surrounding owner Daniel Snyder. After the win, Rivera was hardly in a celebratory mood.

After the game, it was revealed Wentz fractured a finger on his throwing hand and would miss between 4-6 weeks. Taylor Heinicke would return to the starting lineup.

With Heinicke under center, the Commanders would win five of their next seven games. Included in that stretch was a last-second loss to Minnesota in Week 9 and a tie with the Giants in Week 13. Suddenly, Washington sat at 7-5-1 and in possession of the No. 6 playoff position in the NFC after its bye week.

Now, the Commanders head into a Week 15 rematch against the Giants that was flexed to Sunday Night Football. Washington and New York have identical records and the winner likely locking down one of the NFC’s final two wild-card spots.

While a win on Sunday wouldn’t clinch a playoff spot for the Giants or Commanders, it would go a long way in determining their postseason fate, according to Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders.

Per Schatz, if the Commanders win Sunday, they have an 86% chance of making the playoffs with three games remaining. The Giants’ odds are slightly better at 90%.

The Commanders are coming off their bye week while the Giants are reeling from a blowout loss to the Eagles.