Toronto Maple Leafs at Dallas Stars odds, picks and predictions

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The Toronto Maple Leafs (19-10-2) meet the Dallas Stars (19-11-0) Wednesday at American Airlines Center. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Maple Leafs vs. Stars odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

Season series: First meeting; Maple Leafs won 2-0 in 2023-24

The Maple Leafs have swept the regular-season series in each of the past 3 campaigns, winning 6 straight games in the series since March 15, 2022.

Toronto picked up a 5-3 victory at home Sunday over the Buffalo Sabres, cashing as a moderate favorite (-171) as the Over (6) cashed. The Leafs are 3-1-0 in the past 4 games, while the Under has connected at a 5-2-1 pace in the previous 8 contests.

The Stars picked up a 3-1 win Monday against the Washington Capitals as moderate favorites (-156), while going 3-1-0 in the previous 4 outings. The Under has hit in 3 in a row, while going 7-1-0 in the past 8 contests.

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Maple Leafs at Stars odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NHL odds. Lines last updated at 6:16 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Maple Leafs +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Stars -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs +1.5 (-225) | Stars -1.5 (+180)
Over/Under (O/U): 5.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Maple Leafs at Stars projected goalies

Joseph Woll (8-4-0, 2.24 GAA, .918% SV, 1 SO) vs. Jake Oettinger (16-7-0, 2.32 GAA, .913 SV%, 1 SO)

Woll is likely to have to do plenty of the heavy lifting for at least the next month, as Anthony Stolarz will be sidelined 4-6 weeks due to knee surgery. Stolarz is the NHL’s leader in save percentage (.927).

Woll has allowed 3 or fewer goals in each of his past 10 starts and 11 appearances, and he is 2-2-0 with a 2.49 GAA and .906 SV% in 3 starts and 1 relief appearance in December.

Oettinger allowed just a single goal on 26 shots in a 3-1 win against the Capitals, while allowing just 2 goals on 42 shots in back-to-back victories. The Lakeville, Minn., native has a 4-3-0 record, 2.01 GAA and .918 SV% in 7 December outings.

Maple Leafs at Stars picks and predictions

Prediction

Stars 3, Maple Leafs 2

Moneyline

The STARS (-135) are worth a look as moderate favorites, but backing them against the Maple Leafs (+115) is quite risky. Toronto has won 6 straight meetings in the series.

However, the presence of Oettinger gives the Stars a leg up, ever so slightly. Woll has been good, and this will likely be a defensive battle, perhaps even decided in overtime or a shootout. But give Dallas the edge based on tending.

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Puck line/Against the spread

Backing the Maple Leafs +1.5 (-225) will cost you more than 2 times your potential return if you cannot take Toronto straight up, and you’d like a little bit of insurance instead.

Either take the Leafs straight up if you like them, although that’s not recommended, or AVOID.

Over/Under

UNDER 5.5 (+100) is the lean at even-money, but go with a half-unit play at most.

Again, Woll hasn’t allowed more than 3 goals in any start since his first outing of the season in late October.

Meanwhile, the Under is 3-0 in the past 3 starts by Oettinger, and 6-1 across his past 7 assignments. The Under is 5-2 in the past 7 meetings in this series, too.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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