The Oregon Ducks are the best team in the nation. Full stop.
After 15 weeks of football, conference championship games, and numerous iterations of the College Football Playoff rankings, there is one team still standing with an undefeated, 13-0 record, and a conference championship to show for it.
That’s the Oregon Ducks. They’re the No. 1 overall seed in the final CFP rankings, and will likely be favored in every game from here until the end of the season. But don’t tell that to ESPN and their Football Power Index.
According to the FPI, Oregon is — at best — the sixth-best team in the nation. Not better than Texas; not better than Notre Dame; not better than Ohio State, whom they beat in an actual game of football that was played this year.
Per the ESPN FPI, Oregon is worse than all of those teams. They’re also worse than a three-loss Alabama team, and a two-loss Georgia team, in case you were wondering.
Want to talk about a broken system? Look no further.
Going into the Big Ten Championship Game against the Penn State Nittany Lions, the Ducks were 3.5-point favorites according to sportsbooks across the nation. Not according to ESPN, though. The FPI gave James Franklin’s team a 51% chance to win the game. How’d that work out? The Ducks were victorious, 45-37.
So why do we keep looking at the FPI each week if the numbers are clearly broken? That’s a good question. I don’t have an answer for you at this point other than “force of habit” or maybe “to see how hilariously wrong the can get week after week.”
Whatever it may be, let’s take a look at this latest batch of numbers that the FPI is churning out, with a close look at Oregon’s percent chance of winning the national championship (with the knowledge that the Ducks are currently the betting favorite to win it all, per BetMGM.)
Oregon Ducks Overall Season Outlook
Percent Chance to Make National Championship:
- Ohio State Buckeyes — 27.0%
- Georgia Bulldogs — 26.9%
- Oregon Ducks — 26.9% (Previously 21.8%)
- Texas Longhorns — 26.8%
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish — 25.9%
Percent Chance to Win National Championship:
- Texas Longhorns — 16.2%
- Ohio State Buckeyes — 15.6%
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish — 14.9%
- Georgia Bulldogs — 14.4%
- Oregon Ducks — 11.4% (Previously 9.0%)
- Tennessee Volunteers — 7.0%
Make of the numbers from ESPN what you will, and don’t be shy about keeping mental track of how they view the Ducks over the next month. I’ll be watching closely, knowing very well that this may be the last season that I follow the FPI for quite a while. [lawrence-auto-related count=3]