Baldy’s Breakdown: Bills stacking wins using NFL best turnover differential

Baldy’s Breakdown: Bills stacking wins using NFL best turnover differential

Sean McDermott’s Buffalo Bills have continuously beaten their opponents this year by winning the turnover battle, and Sunday night in Week 13 was no different.

The Bills (10-2) forced the San Francisco 49ers (5-7) to turn the ball over three times and had no turnovers of their own in the 35-10 victory.

The Bills lead the NFL in turnover differential at +17. They are second in the league for most takeaways (24) and second in the league with the fewest giveaways (7). They are also second in fumbles recovered (11).

Add all of these components together and you can get a good picture as to why the Bills are 10-2 on the year before even mentioning the team’s points scored and points allowed.

On Sunday, the Bills did what they have been doing all year: they forced their opponent to cough up the ball. Cornerback Christian Benford recovered a fumble forced by safety Taylor Rapp, Jalen Virgil recovered a fumble forced by Cole Bishop on special teams, and pass rusher Greg Rousseau recovered a Brock Purdy fumble.

“One reason the Bills have won seven in a row, and are running away with the AFC East again, is their ability to take the ball away,” said NFL Network and Fox Sports analyst Brian Baldinger in his post-game breakdown. “They are taking it away on average two times per game. You keep doing that, you keep winning.”

Their current turnover differential (+17) is much improved from the previous two years. In 2023, the Bills posted a +2 turnover differential, and in 2022 they broke even (0).

It’s not just the defense causing turnovers that is the reason for their leap over the past two years. A big reason for the improvement is the fact that the offense, and more specifically quarterback Josh Allen, is taking care of the ball.

Last year through 12 games, Allen already had 13 interceptions. This year, he has five.

The offense had zero turnovers in Week 13, and that now makes it six games out of twelve where the Bills have not given the ball away. Last year, the Bills only had three such games over the entire year.

McDermott expressed his pleasure with Allen and the offense taking care of the ball earlier this year, saying, “He’s done a tremendous, tremendous job… he really has, and I couldn’t be more pleased with the way we’ve protected the house on offense. His level of decision-making has increased this season and been very important to our team.”

Taking care of the ball always gives you a chance to win. Add on top of the league-leading turnover differential the fact that the Bills are second in the NFL in points per game, and you can see why they are one of the favorites to win the Lombardi Trophy.

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