According to ESPN, Georgia still has a 73.9% chance to make the College Football Playoff despite having two losses and currently being on the outside looking in.
Georgia has three games remaining and has played the toughest schedule in the country. The Bulldogs are ranked No. 12 in the latest playoff rankings and have a golden opportunity to solidify their playoff hopes with a win over the Tennessee Volunteers on Saturday.
If Georgia beats Tennessee and wins out against UMass and Georgia Tech, the Bulldogs are pretty much locks to make the playoff. Georgia would have over a 99% chance to make the playoff in this scenario, which assumes UGA misses the SEC championship. UGA would have a 98% chance to host a first-round playoff game.
If Georgia wins out and loses in the SEC championship, UGA has a 96% chance to make the playoff and a 75% chance to host a first-round playoff game.
A loss against Tennessee means UGA is out of the SEC title race. Georgia’s playoff odds drop to 46% with a loss (assumes Georgia wins out against UMass and Georgia Tech).
A three-loss Georgia team would be ranked behind Ole Miss, Alabama and Tennessee because they’ve all beaten UGA head-to-head. It would be tough, but not impossible for Georgia to overcome.
Assuming Georgia wins out, a win or loss against Tennessee would swing Georgia’s playoff odds by 53%.