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The New England Patriots (1-4) welcome the Houston Texans (4-1) to Gillette Stadium Sunday for NFL Week 6 action. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Texans vs. Patriots odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Texans have been on a roll, beating the Jaguars and Bills in back-to-back weeks. Houston beat the Jags by 4 and the Bills by 3, closing as a 5.5-point favorite and 1-point favorite. It is 1-3-1 against the spread (ATS) this season. The Texans have been a favorite in every game this season as well. This will be their first week without star WR Nico Collins, who is now on the injured reserve.
The Patriots, who are set to start the No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft QB Drake Maye, are coming off their 4th straight loss. They did impressively beat the Bengals in their first game of the season but have lost by 3, 21, 17 and 5 since. New England has been an underdog in every game this season and is 0-1-1 ATS at home. It lost 15-10 to the Miami Dolphins at home in Week 5, closing as a 1-point underdog.
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Texans at Patriots odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:30 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Texans -300 (bet $300 to win $100) | Patriots +240 (bet $100 to win $240)
- Against the spread (ATS): Texans -6.5 (-115) | Patriots +6.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 37.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Texans at Patriots key injuries
Texans
- RB Joe Mixon (ankle) questionable
- S Jimmie Ward (groin) out
- WR Robert Woods (foot) out
Patriots
- WR Kendrick Bourne (knee) questionable
- S Kyle Dugger (ankle) questionable
- LB Anferne Jennings (shoulder) questionable
- CB Marcus Jones (groin) questionable
- WR K.J. Osborn (shoulder) questionable
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson (foot) out
- CB Marco Wilson (groin) questionable
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Texans at Patriots picks and predictions
Prediction
Texans 20, Patriots 14
Moneyline
PASS.
There’s no great value here. The Patriots shouldn’t win this game outright, although there’s a chance they do cover. Similarly, the Texans are far too expensive to play on the moneyline.
Against the spread
BET PATRIOTS +6.5 (-105).
Houston has consistently won this season, but it hasn’t consistently covered. The Texans are 1-3-1 ATS and 0-1-1 ATS as a favorite of 5 or more. Houston is 0-2 ATS on the road as well. It could also be tough to plan for Maye without any real NFL tape on him.
The Patriots defense has held opponents to 24 or fewer in 4 of 5 games this season, and they are are coming off a game which they allowed just 15 to the Dolphins. New England has allowed just 19 points per game at home. Its defense is good enough to keep things close, especially with Collins’ injury.
Back PATRIOTS +6.5 (-105).
Over/Under
BET UNDER 37.5 (-110).
The Patriots are 2-3 O/U this season while the Texans are 1-4 O/U. Houston has gone Under in 4 straight games. It has allowed 20 or fewer in 3 of its last 4 games. The Texans have scored 19 or fewer in 2 of their last 4 games.
As for New England, it has scored 13 or fewer in 3 straight games and is 1-2 O/U in its last 3. The Patriots’ offense may struggle under Maye. With Houston being so banged up, its offense may be more inconsistent than normal.
Take UNDER 37.5 (-110).
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