Pitt at North Carolina odds, picks and predictions

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The Pitt Panthers (4-0, 0-0 ACC) and North Carolina Tar Heels (3-2, 0-1) tangle in a Week 6 conference contest in Chapel Hill Saturday. Kickoff at Kenan Stadium is set for noon ET (ESPN2).Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around Pitt vs. North Carolina odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

Pitt heads into this contest off a bye week. The Panthers last played Sept. 21 when they decimated FCS Youngstown State 73-17. A quick-snap Pitt offense ranks 6th in the nation in total yards per game (522.8) and 5th in scoring (48.5 points per game).

North Carolina lost 21-20 at Duke Sept. 28, suffering its 2nd straight loss. The Tar Heels, who were 1.5-point favorites, led their in-state rivals 20-0 midway through the 3rd quarter, but Duke scored the final 3 touchdowns — 2 in the 4th quarter — to claim the win. UNC has not covered in its last 9 games, going 0-8-1 against the spread (ATS) along the way.

– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

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Pitt at North Carolina odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated at 12:05 a.m. ET.

Moneyline: Pitt -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | North Carolina +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
Against the spread: Pitt -2.5 (-115) | North Carolina +2.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 63.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Pitt at North Carolina picks and predictions

Prediction

North Carolina 35, Pitt 34

Moneyline

The Panthers and Tar Heels (+115) logged similar games in their last 2 meetings. In 2022, UNC defeated Pitt 42-24 in Chapel Hill as a 3-point favorite. In 2023, the Tar Heels downed the Panthers 41-24 in Pittsburgh as 7-point favorites.

UNC leads the all-time series, which includes 1 bowl game, 12-5. The Tar Heels are 7-0 in all-time meetings in Chapel Hill.

The Tar Heels are a lean here, but better value can be found in taking the points. PASS.

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Against the spread

Since 2003, North Carolina is 7-3 ATS in this series.

Pitt has played 2 close games. Both were wins that could have easily gone the other way. The Panthers trailed by 2 TDs heading into the 4th quarter of a Sept. 7 contest at Cincinnati (UP prevailed 28-27). Pitt was then a turnover-plus-2 in a 38-34 home win over West Virginia the following week.

Passing is a strength for the Panthers, but that’s an area where North Carolina rates solidly in defensive success rate. And on offense, UNC can sling it, too. The Tar Hells have passed for 726 yards over the last 2 week, and pass defense is a success-rate liability for Pitt.

Pitt has logged 1 FBS game since Sept. 14. Might the Panthers — who have had slow starts before — struggle with a sleepy noon kickoff in what marks their 1st road game in 4 weeks?

A ML price change indicating money on the home side has not been as much reflected here, and there is value on NORTH CAROLINA +2.5 (-105).

Over/Under

The Over hit the last 2 meetings and is 8-2 across the last 10.

On a good-weather day in a game that should have plenty of passing on both sides, BACK THE OVER 63.5 (-110).

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