Death, taxes and first down runs. All three statements are realities Houston Texans fans must face in 2024.
Even with one of the league’s top duos in C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins, the Texans still trust their ground game on early downs. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik continues to draw up rushing formations on first-and-10 despite being without Pro Bowl running back Joe Mixon.
The results aren’t kind. With a combination of Dare Ogunbowale and former second-round pick Cam Akers, the Texans rank 23rd nationally league-wide in EPA (expected points added) on run plays in 2024. Houston’s 19 first-down runs rank 31st, surpassing only the Las Vegas Raiders with 13.
The Texans were a bottom 10 team running the football in 2023
The addition of Joe Mixon + a healthy offensive line is going to open up CJ Stroud’s game tremendously
5k yards coming throwing to Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz. pic.twitter.com/WKY89dm9bf
— Snoog's Fantasy HQ (@FFSnoog) June 30, 2024
Keep in mind the Texans have been limited with Mixon and Dameon Pierce sidelined the past two weeks. The hope is Mixon will play in Sunday’s Week 5 matchup against the Buffalo Bills after returning to practice last Friday.
But what version of Mixon will remain in Houston’s backfield this season? Is it the one who rushed for 151 yards and averaged 5.3 yards per attempt in Week 1’s win over the Colts?
Is it the version that only picked up two first downs and finished with less than 35 yards in Week 2’s victory over Chicago?
With Mixon, there’s a chance the ground game can have life on first downs. With Akers, it’s a D.O.A. situation.
Houston ran the football on 13 of the 25 first-down attempts against Jacksonville. The Texans ran it 15 times of the 23 attempts in Week 2’s home opener.
Texans running back run types thus far (via pff):
IND: 33 attempts, 28 zone, 5 gap
CHI: 18 attempts, 11 zone, 6 gap, 1 other
MIN: 11 attempts (lol), 9 zone & 1 gap, 1 other
JAX: 21 att, 9 zone & 12 GAP 🤔🤔Texans tied their lowest zone att & had their highest gap att vs JAX pic.twitter.com/snsIhRmyli
— Houston Stressans (@TexansCommenter) October 2, 2024
In both instances, the Texans often found themselves opening up the passing attack on either second-and-8 or second-and-7.
Mixon, who signed a three-year extension this offseason, was brought in because of his knowledge built around Slowik’s offensive approach. That was evident in Week 1’s matchup at Lucas Oil Stadium but put to the test in Week 2.
Slowik’s mindset isn’t predicated on the run. That would be foolish to assume, especially given Collins’ league-leading receiving record entering October.
The run game must be a part of Houston’s plan. The Texans have an offense, when fully healthy, capable of outgaining some of the league’s top defensive units regardless of the atmosphere.
Right now, it’s becoming predictable on how to slow down Houston. Change is needed in the play-calling, not the play-caller the Texans plan on securing their status of “postseason contender.”
Sunday’s matchup against the Bills might give fans an indication of the offensive strategy moving forward. Should Houston be limited on the grounds, fans should expect drives to start on second down rather than first for the remainder of the year.