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The Connecticut Sun and the Minnesota Lynx meet Sunday for Game 1 of the best-of-5 WNBA semifinals. Tip-off at Target Center in Minneapolis is scheduled 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s WNBA odds around the Sun vs. Lynx odds, and make our expert WNBA picks and predictions.
Regular-season series: Sun won 2-1
The Sun and Lynx had a spirited regular-season series, and all 3 games were decided by 5 points or less.
These teams met in the 1st round of the playoffs last season, with Connecticut shocking Minnesota in Game 3 in the Twin Cities, after the Lynx won in Game 2 to force it home for the decisive game. The road team has covered 5 straight meetings in this series, including the 2 most recent postseason matchups.
Connecticut won at home 83-82 in OT on May 23 as the Lynx covered as a 5.5-pont underdog. In the Twin Cities on July 4, Connecticut won 78-73 as a 3.5-point under, the largest margin of victory in the series. And, on Sept. 17, Minnesota won at Connecticut 78-76 as a 1.5-point ‘dog. The underdog and road team went 3-0 ATS in the 3 meetings.
The Sun polished off Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever in the 1st round in a 2-game sweep, going 1-0-1 against the spread (ATS), while splitting the Over-Under. The Under is 11-6 dating back to Aug. 18.
The Lynx went for 101 or more points in both 1st-round wins over the Phoenix Mercury, splitting 1-1 ATS, while easily cashing the Over in both outings.
Sun at Lynx odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:28 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Sun +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Lynx -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Sun +4.5 (-110) | Lynx -4.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 154.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Sun at Lynx picks and predictions
Prediction
Lynx 75, Sun 72
Moneyline
The Lynx (-210) will set you back more than 2 times your potential return, and that’s too expensive for a standalone wager.
If you were to bet a multi-leg parlay, perhaps tossing in some NFL games, the WNBA playoff game and some MLB action on the final day of that regular season, then perhaps including Minnesota makes sense. But, by itself, AVOID.
Against the spread
The SUN +4.5 (-120) catching the points is a good idea. Again, all 3 regular-season meetings were decided by 5 or fewer points, and the road team covered in each of the battles.
Connecticut heads into the Twin Cities brimming with confidence, and Marina Mabrey was red-hot in the 1st round, going for 22.0 points per game (PPG) with 4.5 APG. She and DeWanna Bonner, who had 18.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 3.5 APG in the 1st round, will be key trying to keep the Sun in the game.
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Over/Under
UNDER 154.5 (-110) is the lean in Game 1. While, yes, the Over was 2-1 in the 3 regular-season meetings, the only game played in the Twin Cities resulted in an Under result.
Don’t go crazy, as Minnesota did hit triple digits in both games against Phoenix in the 1st round. However, Connecticut is a tremendous defensive team, and it allowed just 73.6 PPG in the regular season to rank No. 1 in scoring defense.
In addition, the total has gone low in 11 of the past 17 games for the Sun. Look for Connecticut’s defense to slow Minnesota down quite a bit.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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