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The Houston Astros (87-73) and Cleveland Guardians (92-68) continue their 3-game, season-ending set with a Saturday evening game on the North Coast. First pitch from Progressive Field is slated for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Astros vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Astros lead 3-1
The Astros have gone 13-11 this month, struggling offensively on the road (.663 OPS) while posting excellent numbers at home (.824 OPS).
Cleveland has been finishing strong after a sloppy start to the 2nd half. The Guardians went 17-21 July 19-Aug. 27. Even after Friday’s setback, the AL Central champs and potential No. 1 seed in the AL playoffs are 17-10 since.
Houston clinched its division Tuesday and is locked into the No. 3 seed in the American League. Cleveland is 1 game behind the New York Yankees for the No. 1 seed in the AL, but the Yankees have the tiebreaker over the Guardians.
Astros at Guardians projected starters
RHP Justin Verlander vs. RHP Ben Lively
Verlander (4-6, 5.55 ERA) is making his 17th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 84 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 9-7 home win vs. Los Angeles Angels Sept. 20
- Career vs. Cleveland (regular season): 23-24, 4.41 ERA (352 2/3 IP, 173 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 56 starts
Lively (13-9, 3.80 ERA) is tabbed for his 29th start. He’s authored a 1.22 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 147 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 5-1 victory at St. Louis Cardinals Sept. 20
- Has never faced Astros
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Astros at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 11:05 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Astros +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Guardians -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+165) | Guardians +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Astros at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 6, Guardians 4
Moneyline
Houston (+100) is being undervalued to win straight up, but its run line offers a more profitable opportunity.
PASS. Bet the run line and/or total instead.
Run line/Against the spread
The last 7 series meetings have seen the Astros go 6-1, and 4 of Houston’s wins have been by multi-run margins.
Verlander is a question mark to be sure, but Lively figures to be overrated at least. He has benefited from a .222 batting average on balls in play with runners in scoring position, and his season ERA is tamped down by such luck.
This one gets interesting if the Yankees defeat the Pittsburgh Pirates in an earlier game. New York’s magic number for clinching the top spot in the AL is 1. A Yankee win could put the Guardians in middle relief-and-rest mode.
Houston’s bullpen has been sharp over the last couple months.
The return here (price listed on FanDuel Sportsbook) makes Houston worth the risk. BACK THE ASTROS -1.5 (+172).
Over/Under
The Under 8 was the play Friday and cashed with a 5-2 Houston triumph. The pitching changes the equation here, though.
CONSIDER A PARTIAL-UNIT PLAY ON THE OVER 8 (-105).
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