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The North Carolina Tar Heels (3-1) and the Duke Blue Devils (4-0) meet Saturday at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, N.C., for the ACC opener for both sides. Kickoff is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the North Carolina vs. Duke odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
North Carolina was embarrassed last week against visiting James Madison, as the Dukes dropped 53 on it — in the 1st half! JMU left Chapel Hill with $500K from the Tar Heels and a 70-50 victory. UNC was favored by 10.5 points as the Over (48) was nearly tripled up.
The Tar Heels offense has scored 38 or more points in 3 straight games, but UNC is 0-3 against the spread (ATS) in the past 3 outings and 0-3-1 ATS in 4 games to date. The Over and Under have alternated in each of the 4 contests.
Duke has won all 4 games to date, scoring 26 or more points in each outing. The Blue Devils have covered 2 of the past 3 outings, while the Over is 2-0-1 in the 3-game span.
The Tar Heels lead the all-time series 66-40-4, according to the UNC media guide, including wins in the past 5 meetings. That means the Victory Bell, awarded to the winner of this rivalry on the gridiron, has resided in Chapel Hill since Nov. 10, 2018. However, Duke has covered the previous 2 meetings, including a wild 47-45 2OT loss in Chapel Hill Nov. 11, 2023, as a 10-point underdog. The Over is 3-1 in the past 4 in the series.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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North Carolina at Duke odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Friday at 7:21 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): North Carolina +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Duke -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread: North Carolina +2.5 (-105) | Duke -2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 56 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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North Carolina at Duke picks and predictions
Prediction
North Carolina 32, Duke 29
Moneyline
NORTH CAROLINA (+120) is a solid play straight up at plus-money, as it takes the short ride up US 15-501 looking to bring the Victory Bell back down the road with another win over its rivals.
Duke (-145) is 4-0 straight up this season, but it struggled to shake off UConn at home 2 weeks ago and Northwestern took the Blue Devils to 2OT in Evanston before Duke won 26-20. The Blue Devils even struggled against FCS Elon for a majority of the opener before pulling away.
While the Blue Devils should find plenty of room against the leaky UNC defense, the Tar Heels look to have a much more powerful offense.
Against the spread
Playing North Carolina +2.5 (-105) and laying money, rather than playing it straight up at plus-money, makes little sense, unless you believe Duke -2.5 (-115) will win outright, but only by 1 or 2 points.
PASS.
Over/Under
OVER 56 (-110) is a strong play in this rivalry game. It has cashed in 3 of the previous 4 meetings.
Duke has hit high on the total at a 2-0-1 clip in the past 3 outings, and Duke has scored 26 or more points on offense in each of its 4 games.
For UNC, the offense has racked up 38 or more points in 3 consecutive games, and the defense was obviously a disaster last weekend.
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