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The Houston Astros (85-71) welcome the Seattle Mariners (80-76) to Minute Maid Park Monday for the 1st game of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network/ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Mariners vs. Astors odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mariners lead 6-4
The Mariners lost to the Texas Rangers Sunday 6-5 to close out that 3-game series. They did win 2 of 3 against the Rangers after losing 2 of 3 to the New York Yankees in the series prior. Seattle is 6-3 over its last 9 game and is 5 games behind Houston for the AL West lead and 2 games out of the final AL Wild Card spot. The Mariners are 66-90 against the spread (ATS) and 34-44 on the road.
The Astros had their 3-game winning streak snapped Sunday, dropping the final game of their series with the Los Angeles Angels 9-8. Houston lost 2 of 3 on the road to the San Diego Padres prior to that. Houston boasts a 45-33 record at Minute Maid Park. It is 81-74 ATS.
Mariners at Astros projected starters
RHP Bryce Miller vs. RHP Hunter Brown
Miller (11-8, 3.06 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 0.99 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 173 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 4 BB, 8 K in 2-1 home loss to the New York Yankees Wednesday
- 2024 away stats: 5-5, 4.44 ERA (77 IP, 38 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 in 14 starts
- Career vs. Astros: 3-1, 3.18 ERA (28 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 in 5 starts
Brown (11-8, 3.57 ERA) makes his 30th start and 31st appearance. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 164 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 4-3 road win over the San Diego Padres Tuesday
- 2024 home stats: 5-4, 3.49 ERA (80 IP, 31 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 in 14 starts
- Career vs. Mariners: 1-2, 5.73 ERA (22 IP, 14 ER), 1.86 WHIP, 13.1 K/9 in 5 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Mariners at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Sunday at 10:27 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mariners +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Astros -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-165) | Astros -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Mariners at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 4, Astros 3
Moneyline
BET MARINERS (+125).
The Astros haven’t consistently won with Brown on the mound, going 2-3 in his last 5 starts and 14-16 in games he has pitched. They are 7-7 in his home starts. At the same time, the Mariners have played very well on the road as of late. They won 2 of 3 at the Rangers and have won 6 of their last 8 road games. The Astros, while they have won 3 of their last 4, have allowed 20 runs in their last 3 games, so their defense has left much to be desired.
At these odds, back MARINERS (+125).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There’s no great value here. The Mariners are too expensive to take as a run-line underdog, and the Astros are too risky to play as a run-line favorite. Avoid this play.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8 (-115).
The Astros, while their defense and pitching struggled against the Angels, have still gone 3-4 O/U in their last 7 games. They are 63-87-5 O/U on the season and are 1-2 O/U in Brown’s last 3 starts.
The Mariners are 1-5-2 O/U in Miller’s last 8 starts. He is among their best pitchers. Both teams have a solid starting options which should result in few runs for the 1st several innings. Seattle has allowed 16 total runs in its last 5 games.
Play UNDER 8 (-115).
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