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The Atlanta Dream and the New York Liberty play Game 1 of their 1st-round best-of-3 series Sunday. Tip-off is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s WNBA odds around the Dream vs. Liberty odds, and make our expert WNBA picks and predictions.
Regular-season series: Liberty won 3-1
The Dream picked up a 78-67 victory against the Liberty in the regular-season finale Thursday, cashing as a 5-point underdog while the Under (157.5) cashed. However, that can be disregarded, as Atlanta was fighting for the final playoff spot, while New York had powered down after having the No. 1 overall seed locked up.
The Liberty played Breanna Stewart and Courtney Vandersloot just 16 minutes. The Liberty emptied the bench in the finale, but they’ll obviously lean upon the stars more in the playoff opener.
In B-Stew’s 3 full games against the Dream, she averaged 21.3 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 4.7 APG and 1.7 SPG, while hitting 4 3-pointers.
Atlanta’s Tina Charles, a former Liberty player, had 10 points and 10 rebounds in Thursday’s finale at New York. She finished the season with 9 double-doubles in the final 10 games. Charles is averaging 11.7 PPG and 9.7 RPG in the past 3 tries against the Lib.
Dream at Liberty odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 3:50 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Dream +575 (bet $100 to win $575) | Liberty -800 (bet $800 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Dream +12.5 (-115) | Liberty -12.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 156.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Dream at Liberty picks and predictions
Prediction
Liberty 86, Dream 77
Moneyline
The Liberty (-800) will cost you 8 times your potential return, and while the No. 1 seed should be able to coast by a Dream (+575) team that secured the No. 8 seed on the final day, nothing is a certainty.
This is just too much risk for not enough reward. You would need to risk $80 for every $10 in profit. That’s a poor betting strategy over the long term.
AVOID.
Against the spread
In the 3 games which saw the Liberty play their starters for the entire game, New York was 2-1 ATS.
However, the DREAM +12.5 (-115) are on a 5-2 ATS roll in the past 7 outings, and 5-1 ATS in 6 games as a double-digit underdog, including June 30 at Barclays Center against the Lib.
Look for a tight game into the 2nd half before New York pulls away somewhat. But, Atlanta should be able to hang on for the cover.
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Over/Under
OVER 156.5 (-115) is a strong play in Game 1 of this best-of-3 series.
While the Under is 4-1 in the final 5 regular-season games for Atlanta, the offense has been good for at least 76 points.
For New York, it scored at least 87 points in 3 of the final 5 games. We should get some fireworks in this matinee playoff battle.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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