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The Arizona Diamondbacks (84-68) and the NL Central Division champion Milwaukee Brewers (88-64) meet Thursday as they open a 4-game series. First pitch at American Family Field is slated for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Diamondbacks vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Brewers lead 2-1
These 2 teams met last weekend with the Brewers taking 2 of 3 in Phoenix Sept. 13-15 and the Diamondbacks winning Sunday to avoid a sweep. A combined 44 runs were scored over the last 2 games with Milwaukee winning 15-8 Saturday and Arizona responding with a 11-10 thriller in 10 innings in the finale. The D-backs followed by losing 2 of 3 at the Colorado Rockies, prevailing 9-4 Wednesday as -175 favorites.
The Brewers continue a homestand that opened with taking 2 of 3 against the Philadelphia Phillies. When the Chicago Cubs lost to the Oakland A’s Wednesday afternoon, the Brewers clinched the NL Central Division before their 2-1 victory over the Phillies later that night. Milwaukee is 5-2 over its last 7 games.
Diamondbacks at Brewers projected starters
RHP Brandon Pfaadt vs. RHP Tobias Myers
Pfaadt (9-9, 4.81 ERA) is making his 30th start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 166 2/3 innings.
- Last outing: Loss, 1 2/3 IP, 8 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 0 K in 15-8 home defeat vs. Brewers Saturday
- Owns a 10.23 ERA over his last 5 starts
Myers (8-5, 3.07 ERA) is making his 24th start and 25th appearance. The rookie has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 through 126 innings.
- Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 15-8 rout at Diamondbacks Saturday
- Has benefited from a .280 batting average on balls in play (.203 BABIP with runners in scoring position)
Pfaadt and Myers were the opposing starters in Saturday’s 15-8 Milwaukee victory. It’s the only time Myers has faced the Diamondbacks in his career, while it was the 2nd time Pfaadt took on the Brewers. He started against Milwaukee in Game 1 of their Wild Card series last season, yielding 3 runs on 7 hits and 1 walk in 2 2/3 innings before being removed. Arizona would rally to win that contest 6-3 on its way to a 2-0 series sweep.
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Diamondbacks at Brewers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 5:37 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Brewers +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks -1.5 (+145) | Brewers +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Diamondbacks at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 5, Brewers 4
Moneyline
Arizona is 5-1 over its last 6 games at Milwaukee.
Pfaadt has been rather unfortunate this season, and he figures as a better starter than what shows in his surface line. He’s been hurt by a .317 batting average on balls in play and a .359 BABIP with runners in scoring position.
Myers has numbers swinging the other way, and he’s a fade nod here.
The Diamondbacks have banged out an .856 OPS since Aug. 28.
BACK ARIZONA (-120).
Run line/Against the spread
The Snakes minus the cushion would be a play at +150. But PASS on the offering since we’re backing the moneyline.
Over/Under
As mentioned, last weekend’s scores were 15-8 (Brewers win) and 11-10 (Diamondbacks win). The Over is 13-5 in Arizona’s last 18 games, and the last 9 games of this series have produced 6 Overs.
Both sides have actual-vs.-pitching-and-defense analytics that point to a “should-be-higher” angle on scoring.
With the pitchers being seen just a week ago (same with the bullpens), the OVER 8 (-115) is a value.
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