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The New York Yankees (89-63) and Seattle Mariners (77-75) meet Thursday afternoon to cap off a 3-game series. First pitch from T-Mobile Park will be at 4:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Yankees lead 4-2
New York had struggled over recent road series, but has taken the 1st 2 games (11-2 and 2-1) of this set in Emerald City. Yankee pitching has allowed just 3 runs in this series and has logged a sparkling 2,55 ERA in leading the club to a 6-1 mark over its last 7 games.
Prior to this series, the Mariners had been 12-4 across their previous 16 games at T-Mobile. They have gone a combined 2-for-17 with runners in scoring position over their twin losses in this series.
Yankees at Mariners projected starters
RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. RHP Logan Gilbert
Schmidt (5-3, 2.41 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 71 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 5-4 win vs. Boston Red Sox Friday
- Career vs. Mariners: 0-1, 1.69 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 7 H, 3 BB, 13 K in 2 starts
Gilbert (7-11, 3.24 ERA) is lined up for his 31st start. He has a 0.89 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 191 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 5-4 win vs. Texas Rangers Saturday
- Career vs. Yankees: 1-2, 7.18 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 21 ER), 33 H, 7 BB, 17 K in 5 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Yankees at Mariners odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 8:33 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Yankees -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Mariners -105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+150) | Mariners +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Yankees at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 5, Yankees 4
Moneyline
Seattle has won 4 straight series finales. New York is 0-4 in its last 4 getaway road games.
Schmidt was reinstated from the 60-day IL (lat) Sept. 7. He’s allowed 2 ER in 10 1/3 IP over 2 starts since. He went 75 pitches on Sept. 7 and 86 on Sept. 13. Might fatigue pop up in this game? If not, it would seem likely a less-than-stellar Yankee bullpen gets more exposed in this matchup.
On the surface, Gilbert has had a hit-and-miss run– almost on an alternating start basis — after logging a 2.79 ERA in the 1st half. But the Seattle right-hander has been undone by a low strand since the break; his expected-ERA figures are much better than the 4.25 surface figure he’s posted in the 2nd half. The ability to miss bats has been elite. Gilbert owns a 14.8% swing-and-miss rate in the 2nd half and a career-best 14.3% mark for the season.
The Yanks clinched a playoff berth Wednesday night and have a now-comfortable AL East lead with the Baltimore Orioles scuffling of late. This getaway tilt may not have New York’s full attention. And the Yanks had been 4-7 over 11 previous road games since Aug. 17.
Seattle has had a lot of traffic aboard in this series. And fine offensive numbers are not too far back in the rearview mirror. The Mariners filed an .858 OPS from Sept. 8-15.
FanDuel Sportsbook offers better leverage on Seattle in this spot. TAKE THE MARINERS (+100).
Run line/Against the spread
More juice equals less interest. STEER CLEAR.
Over/Under
Indicators crisscross and cut both ways here, some toward some leverage on the high side and some on the low.
With New York logging a few double-digit scoring games in its recent T-Mobile past and with the Mariners clocking a fine offensive run until the last couple of nights (when they were slowed by poor clutch hitting) … and with Schmidt being a slight fade candidate in front of a shaky New York bullpen, the OVER 7.5 (+100) has a sliver of a lean.
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