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The Chicago Cubs (77-75) welcome the Washington Nationals (68-84) to Wrigley Field Thursday to open a 4-game series. First pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Nationals vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Cubs lead 3-0
The Cubs are coming off a 2-1 series loss to the Oakland A’s. They lost 5-3 Wednesday, dropping their 2nd straight game. Chicago had also lost 2 of 3 games at the Colorado Rockies Friday through Sunday. It is 5-7 over its last 12 games and 39-35 at home this season. Chicago is 72-80 against the spread (ATS).
The Nationals, who are 32-45 on the road this season, were swept in 3 games at the New York Mets. After losing 10-1 Tuesday, they lost the Wednesday finale 10-0. Washington is 4-4 over its last 8 games, though. It is 83-69 ATS on the season.
Nationals at Cubs projected starters
LHP Patrick Corbin vs. RHP Javier Assad
Corbin (6-13, 5.45 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.49 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 through 165 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 4-1 home victory over Miami Marlins Saturday
- 2024 away stats: 2-8, 6.58 ERA (79 1/3 IP, 58 ER), 1.74 WHIP, 6.7 K/9 in 15 starts
- Career vs. Cubs: 5-2, 4.09 ERA (66 IP, 30 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 in 12 appearances (11 starts)
Assad (7-5, 3.27 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 137 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 9-5 road loss to Rockies Friday
- 2024 home stats: 3-2, 2.24 ERA (64 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 in 13 starts
- Career vs. Nationals: 1-0, 2.45 ERA (11 IP, 3 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 4.1 K/9 in 2 appearances (1 start)
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Nationals at Cubs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 1:40 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Nationals +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Cubs -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Nationals +1.5 (-135) | Cubs -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Nationals at Cubs picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 6, Nationals 3
Moneyline
PASS.
There’s no great value here. The Cubs (-190) are rightfully expensive home favorites, especially with Assad on the mound. They aren’t worth a play to win outright, though.
Run line/Against the spread
BET CUBS -1.5 (+110).
The Cubs offense has been far more consistent over the last few weeks, and Chicago has the better pitcher on the mound Thursday.
Corbin has been awful on the road this season, and the Nationals have been outscored 22-2 in their last 3 games. Even in their last 9, they have been outscored 46-22. Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games as an underdog.
With Chicago having scored at least 3 runs in 9 straight games, expect it to get on the board enough to cover.
Take CUBS -1.5 (+110).
Over/Under
BET OVER 8.5 (-110).
The Cubs have gone Over in 2 of their last 3 games and 7 of their last 9. They have also scored at least 5 runs in 7 of 9 games and allowed at least 4 in 5 of their last 7.
Washington has gone Over in back-to-back games. Given those trends, especially for the Nationals’ defense, take OVER 8.5 (-110).
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