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The Detroit Tigers (77-73) and Kansas City Royals (82-68) meet Monday to open a 3-game series. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is slated for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Tigers vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Royals lead 7-3
The Tigers have gotten into the AL Wild Card hunt by going 15-7 over their last 22 games. They are on the road after a key 4-2 home stand that wrapped up with a 4-2 win over the Baltimore Orioles Sunday. Detroit is 7-3 over its last 10 road tilts.
Kansas City lost to the Pittsburg Pirates 4-3 Sunday but is 7-3 over its last 10 games after a dismal Aug. 28-Sept. 3 stretch. The Royals lost 7 straight over that span, but in righting the ship, the ball club heads into the season’s final fortnight 2½ games clear of the 3rd-and-final AL Wild Card slot.
Tigers at Royals projected starters
TBD vs. RHP Seth Lugo
Detroit had not yet announced a starter, but RHP Reese Olson (4-8, 3.23 ERA) could make his 20th start. He owns a 1.18 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 103 IP.
- Has missed nearly 2 months with shoulder strain
- Last start: No-decision, 2 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 0 K in 7-3 win at Toronto Blue Jays July 20
- 2024 road stats: 1-4, 3.02 ERA (53 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 in 11 starts
- Career vs. Royals: 0-2, 2.53 ERA (21 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 in 4 starts
Lugo (16-8, 2.94 ERA) is making his 31st start. He has authored a 1.09 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 193 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 10 K in 5-0 victory at New York Yankees Tuesday
- Career vs. Tigers: 3-0, 1.29 ERA (21 IP, 3 ER), 0.91 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 in 3 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Tigers at Royals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Tigers +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Royals -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers +1.5 (-175) | Royals -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Tigers at Royals picks and predictions
Prediction
Royals 5, Tigers 4
Moneyline
KANSAS CITY (-150) is 6-1 over its last 7 games against Detroit.
The Royals’ 5.00 runs per game at home rank 5th in MLB. Their offensive numbers of late are a bit depressed by some shaky games batting with runners in scoring position.
Olson threw just 45 pitches in his most recent rehab outing at Triple-A, so he can’t be expected to get deep into this one if he starts.
The Bengals are just 1-4 over their last 5 road series openers.
KANSAS CITY (-150) is the value side of this Monday tilt at Kaufman Stadium.
Run line/Against the spread
Catch better value on the ML, and avoid the RL with a Detroit club that plays a ton of 1-run games. PASS.
Over/Under
The last 7 series meetings have cranked out a 5-2 edge for the Over. Tigers road games have seen the Over go 40-31-4.
Lugo and Olson are solid pitchers, but both have higher expected-ERA figures. Both have favorable rates around the margins most touched by luck factors like batting average on balls in play.
On a warmed-up day in Kansas City, and with the Royals’ lineup being slightly undervalued by recent numbers, BACK THE OVER 8.5 (+100).
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