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The Tampa Bay Rays (73-76) and the Cleveland Guardians (85-64) wrap up a 4-game series on Sunday. First pitch from Progressive Field is set for 1:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Rays vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Rays lead 4-2
The Rays won the 1st 2 games of this series before falling 6-1 on Saturday. Tampa Bay is just 9-14 in the past 23 games since Aug. 22, while going 6-10 in the past 16 outings on the road. The Under has cashed in 4 in a row, and 6 of the past 7 contests.
For the Guardians, they’re still 4-2 in the past 6 games, while going 4-3 in the past 7 outings at Progressive Field. The Under has cashed in 3 in a row, while going 11-1-2 in the previous 14 contests.
Tampa Bay still holds a 4-2 edge, and it clinched the season series win regardless of whatever happens Sunday. The Under has cashed in 7 straight meetings in this series since Sept. 3, 2023.
Rays at Guardians projected starters
RHP Taj Bradley vs. RHP Ben Lively
Bradley (6-10, 4.40 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 122 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 6 H (2 HR), 2 BB, 6 K in 9-4 road loss vs. Philadelphia Phillies Tuesday
- 2024 road splits: 3-3, 4.82 ERA, 56 IP, 30 ER, 11 HR, 1.32 WHIP, .259 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 19 BB, 45 K in 10 starts
- Last 7 games: 0-5, 8.42 ERA, 36 1/3 IP, 34 ER, 13 BB, 34 K, 1.71 WHIP
- Career vs. Guardians: 1-0, 0.75 ERA, 12 IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 7 BB, 15 K in 2 starts
Lively (11-9, 4.01 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 137 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 2 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 5-0 road win vs. Chicago White Sox Tuesday
- 2024 home splits: 7-2, 3.93 ERA, 66 1/3 IP, 29 ER, 11 HR, 1.24 WHIP, .243 OBA, 20 BB, 49 K in 12 starts
- Last 7 games: 1-3, 5.97 ERA, 31 2/3 IP, 21 ER, 13 BB, 20 K, 1.55 WHIP
- Career vs. Rays: 0-1, 4.82 ERA, 9 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 2 BB, 12 K, 1.29 WHIP in 2 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Rays at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 7:03 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rays +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Guardians -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays +1.5 (-190) | Guardians -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Rays at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 5, Rays 2
Moneyline
The GUARDIANS (-135) are a strong play in the series finale behind Lively. He has pitched well at home, posting a 7-2 record at Progressive Field this season.
The Rays (+115) are looking for the series win, while trying to keep their flickering playoff hopes alive, but it’s a tough sell with Bradley on the bump. He has fallen apart, losing his past 6 decisions, last winning on July 25. He has served up 4 HR in 13 IP in 2 September outings, while serving up 10 HR in the past 6 starts.
Run line/Against the spread
Playing the GUARDIANS -1.5 (+155) is a strong play if you’re a little more adventurous, and you want more than just the moneyline.
Cleveland is 4-2 in the past 6 games as a favorite on the run line, and each of the past 14 victories since Aug. 14 have been by 2 or more runs. So, if you like the Guardians to win, you should like them on the run line, too.
Over/Under
UNDER 8.5 (-120) is a strong play in the series finale Sunday. The Under is on a roll, cashing in 6 consecutive meetings with the Guardians.
The Under is 6-1 in the past 7 games for the Rays, while splitting 2-2 in the past 4 road starts by Bradley.
For the Guardians, the Under has cashed in 3 straight, while going 11-1-2 in the past 14 outings. At home, the total has gone low in 5 in a row, too.
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