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The Arizona Diamondbacks (82-64) welcome the Milwaukee Brewers (84-62) to Chase Field Friday to open a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Brewers vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Arizona won 4-2 in last year’s regular-season series
The Diamondbacks beat the Texas Rangers 14-4 Wednesday, completing a 2-game sweep. They closed as -157 favorites yet have been moneyline (ML) underdogs in 4 of their last 6 games. Arizona has won 3 straight games and is 5-3 over its last 8. It is 41-31 at home this season and 77-69 against the spread (ATS).
The Brewers won 3-0 at the San Francisco Giants Thursday, closing as -130 favorites in the series finale. They have traded off winning and losing over their last 6 games and are 3-5 over their last 8. Milwaukee had lost 2 of 3 games to both the St. Louis Cardinals (Sept. 2-4) and Colorado Rockies (Sept. 6-8) before facing the Giants. It is 42-33 on the road and 77-69 ATS on the season.
Brewers at Diamondbacks projected starters
RHP Freddy Peralta vs. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
Peralta (10-8, 3.81 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 through 158 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 4-1 home defeat to Rockies Sunday
- 2024 away stats: 4-3, 3.39 ERA (69 IP, 26 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 in 13 starts
- Career vs. Diamondbacks: 3-0, 0.55 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 1 ER), 0.61 WHIP, 13.2 K/9 in 4 appearances (2 starts)
Rodriguez (2-2, 5.83 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.53 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 through 29 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 1 K in 11-5 road setback to Houston Astros Saturday
- 2024 home stats: 0-1, 6.91 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.54 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 in 3 starts
- Career vs. Brewers: 0-0, 1.50 ERA (6 IP, 1 ER), 3 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 1 start, a 4-1 road win May 11, 2017, with Boston Red Sox
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Brewers at Diamondbacks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 10:01 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Brewers -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Diamondbacks -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Brewers -1.5 (+155) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Brewers at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 6, Brewers 3
Moneyline
BET DIAMONDBACKS (-115).
The Diamondbacks have been red hot offensively, and there doesn’t seem to be an end in sight. They have scored 32 runs in their last 3 games and at least 6 in 9 of their last 12. They are 4-2 in Rodriguez’s last 6 starts.
The Brewers have traded off winning and losing in 6 straight and are coming off a win. If that trend continues, they will lose Friday. Milwaukee lost Peralta’s last start 4-1 to the Rockies. Milwaukee has allowed 15 runs in its last 3 games.
Considering those trends, back DIAMONDBACKS (-115).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Brewers are too risky to play as run-line favorites for the reasons listed above, and the Diamondbacks are way too expensive and not worth a play as run-line underdogs.
Avoid this wager.
Over/Under
BET OVER 8.5 (-105).
The Diamondbacks have an electric offense and have gone north of the total in 10 of their last 12 games. They have allowed 29 runs in their last 5 games while scoring 37 in that span. Arizona is 84-56-6 O/U and should continue its red-hot batting.
The Brewers are a different story, having gone Under in 6 of their last 7 games; however, they are 77-61-8 O/U on the season. Season-long trends point to them typically surpassing the total. They have scored at least 3 runs in 3 of their last 5 games.
Take OVER 8.5 (-105).
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