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The Tampa Bay Rays (72-75) and the Cleveland Guardians (84-63) play the 2nd contest of a 4-game series on Friday. First pitch from Progressive Field is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Rays vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Rays lead 3-1
The Rays and Guardians swapped runs in the 1st inning, and it was 3-2 in favor of Tampa Bay after 4 innings. The Rays picked up a run in both the top of the 8th and 9th innings to pick up the 5-2 win in the series opener as the underdog (+122) while the Under (7.5) just hung on.
Tampa Bay rebounded from a sweep at the hands of the Philadelphia Phillies on the road earlier this week, but it is still 8-13 in the past 21 outings. The Rays have hit the Under at a 6-3-1 clip in the past 10 contests.
Despite the loss, Cleveland still has an AL-best 43-26 record at home. The Guardians have managed just 3 victories in the past 8 tries at Progressive Field, however. The Under is on a 9-1-2 run in the past 12 outings since Aug. 31.
Rays at Guardians projected starters
RHP Zack Littell vs. RHP Tanner Bibee
Littell (6-9, 3.89 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 138 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 2-0 road victory vs. Baltimore Orioles Sunday
- 2024 road splits: 3-4, 4.91 ERA, 58 2/3 IP, 32 ER, 10 HR, 1.57 WHIP, .319 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 13 BB, 49 K in 12 starts
- Last 7 games: 3-3, 2.89 ERA, 37 1/3 IP, 12 ER, 12 BB, 28 K, 1.23 WHIP
- Career vs. Guardians: 3-0, 2.01 ERA, 22 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 21 H, 8 BB, 9 K in 10 appearances (2 starts)
Bibee (11-7, 3.56 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 154 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H (1 HR), 3 BB, 4 K in 4-0 road setback vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday
- 2024 home splits: 4-3, 4.54 ERA, 69 1/3 IP, 35 ER, 9 HR, 1.23 WHIP, .245 OBA, 19 BB, 78 K in 13 starts
- Last 7 games: 3-3, 3.76 ERA, 38 1/3 IP, 16 ER, 10 BB, 36 K, 1.25 WHIP
- Career vs. Rays: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 9-2 road win Aug. 13, 2023, in only start vs. TB
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Rays at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 6:44 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rays +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Guardians -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays +1.5 (-150) | Guardians -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Rays at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 4, Rays 3
Moneyline
The GUARDIANS (-175) are a little bit on the pricey side, but they’re a solid play to bounce back from the series opening loss with Bibee on the hill.
Bibee wasn’t at his best last time out, but that was on the road against the high-octane LA Dodgers. He should get it together, as long as the offense can provide him with a little something. Cleveland is 6-3 across Bibee’s past 9 starts. Look for a nice bounce-back game from the home side.
Run line/Against the spread
If you like the RAYS +1.5 (-150), but can’t back them straight up, consider the run line at a moderate price. Tampa Bay has won 3 of 4 games against Cleveland this season, and 2 of the past 3 losses have been by a single run.
In addition, Tampa Bay is 9-2 on the run line as an underdog, with 4 outright wins in the stretch.
Over/Under
UNDER 7.5 (-115) is worth playing again on Friday.
In the series opener, the Under came in by a half-run after a quick start by these 2 teams. The Under is now 9-1-2 in the past 12 games for the Guardians, including 3-0 in the past 3 outings at Progressive Field.
For Tampa Bay, the total has gone low in 4 of the past 5 games, with the offense producing 2.8 runs per game in the span, while allowing 3 or fewer runs in 6 of the past 7 contests.
The Under is also a perfect 4-0 in 4 meetings between the Guardians and Rays this season.
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