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The New York Mets (73-64) welcome the Boston Red Sox (70-67) to Citi Field Monday for the 1st game of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Boston won 2 of 3 in 2023
The Mets beat the Chicago White Sox 2-0 Sunday, completing the 3-game sweep. New York closed as a favorite in all 3 games. It has won 4 straight and 5 of its last 6 games. The Mets have jumped to 3rd in the NL East and are 35-33 at home. They are 68-68 against the spread (ATS).
The Red Sox, who sit 3rd in the AL East, have struggled over the last few weeks. They lost 4-1 to the Detroit Tigers Sunday, dropping 2 of 3 in that series. Boston is 3-7 in its last 10 games yet is 39-29 on the road and 63-74 ATS.
Red Sox at Mets projected starters
RHP Brayan Bello vs. RHP Luis Severino
Bello (12-6, 4.66 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 137 IP.
- Last start: Win, 8 IP, 0 ER (0 R), 2 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 3-0 home win over the Toronto Blue Jays Wednesday
- 2024 away stats: 7-2, 4.39 ERA (65 2/3 IP, 32 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 12 starts
- First time facing Mets
Severino (9-6, 3.96 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 152 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER (4 R), 8 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 8-5 road loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday
- 2024 home stats: 5-2, 3.13 ERA (77 2/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 6.7 K/9 in 13 starts
- Career vs. Red Sox: 5-7, 4.06 ERA (82 IP, 37 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 in 16 appearances (14 starts)
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Red Sox at Mets odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:19 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +104 (bet $100 to win $104) | Mets -122 (bet $122 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-210) | Mets -1.5 (+172)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -102)
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Red Sox at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 4, Mets 3
Moneyline
BET RED SOX (+110).
The Red Sox have been impressive on the road and have won 3 of their last 5 away games. Boston has also consistently won with Bello on the mound. The Red Sox have come out on top in 6 of his last 7 starts.
The Mets are coming off a sweep, but that was over the White Sox, a historically bad team. They were 3-3 in the 6 games prior to that and haven’t consistently won at home either.
With both those trends in mind, back RED SOX (+104).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There’s no great value here. The Red Sox are far too expensive as a run-line underdog, and the Mets are too risky as a run-line favorite. Avoid this play.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 7.5 (-102).
The Mets have gone Under in 4 straight games, scoring 15 runs in those games while allowing just 6. New York has given up 3 or fewer runs in 7 of its last 8 games.
The Red Sox have gone Under in 5 of their last 6 games as well, scoring 1 or fewer runs in 3 of their last 4 games while allowing 3 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 6. Take UNDER 7.5 (-102).
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