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The Tampa Bay Rays (65-65) and Seattle Mariners (66-65) begin a 3-game series Monday. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is set for 9:40 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Rays vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Rays lead 2-1
The Rays lost 7-3 in the series opener against the Los Angeles Dodgers Friday, before an exciting tiebreaking 2-run HR by Jose Caballero in the top of the 10th on Saturday for a 9-8 win, as the Over easily cashed. The Rays lost 3-1 in a pitcher’s duel Sunday.
The Over was 2-1 in the series in L.A., but the Under is still 7-4-1 across the past 12 games for the Rays.
For the Mariners, they responded Friday with a 6-5 win over the San Francisco Giants in the 1st game under interim manager Dan Wilson following the dismissal of Scott Servais Thursday. The Giants eked out a 4-3 win on Saturday, and Seattle won 4-3 on Sunday in a 3rd consecutive 1-run game as the total (7) pushed at most shops. The Over is on a 6-1-2 run for the Mariners in the past 9 outings.
These teams met in St. Petersburg for a 3-game set June 24-26, with the Rays winning 2 of the 3 outings. The Over cashed in the middle game, while the total pushed at most shops in the opener and finale.
Rays at Mariners projected starters
RHP Ryan Pepiot vs. RHP Bryce Miller
Pepiot (7-5, 3.65 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 98 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H (1 HR), 1 BB, 5 K in 4-2 road victory vs. Oakland Athletics Wednesday
- 2024 road splits: 4-2, 3.50 ERA (36 IP, 14 ER), 1.06 WHIP, .205 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 11 BB, 38 K in 7 starts
- 2024/career vs. Mariners: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 5-2 home setback June 26
Miller (9-7, 3.32 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.02 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 143 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 5 H (2 solo HR), 2 BB, 5 K in 6-3 road setback vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tuesday
- 2024 home splits: 5-3, 2.09 ERA (77 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 0.91 WHIP, .188 OBA, 4 HR, 18 BB, 86 K in 13 starts
- Has never faced Giants
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Rays at Mariners odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 7:18 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rays +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Mariners -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays +1.5 (-220) | Mariners -1.5 (+180)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Rays at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 3, Rays 2
The MARINERS (-120) are worth playing lightly in the series opener. This could be a surprisingly well-pitched game between Pepiot and Miller.
Seattle has picked up the pace a little bit on offense lately, but pitching still has been an issue. However, the M’s are 5-3 across Miller’s past 8 outings, and he has allowed 3 or fewer ER in 8 of the previous 9 starts.
Run line/Against the spread
The Rays +1.5 (-220) will set you back more than 2 times your potential return, if you require a little extra insurance, and can’t bring yourself to back Tampa Bay straight up.
That’s too much risk for not enough reward, even if you fold Tampa Bay into a multi-leg parlay.
AVOID.
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Over/Under
UNDER 7 (-110) is also worth playing lightly. Go with a half-unit play at the most.
We’re going a bit against the trends here, as the Over is 6-1-2 in the past 9 games for the Mariners, but the Under is 5-4-1 in the past 10 home outings, however.
For the Rays, they cashed high in 2 of 3 games in Los Angeles, but the Under is still 13-6-1 in 20 outings in the month of August.
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