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The Minnesota Twins (72-57) welcome the St. Louis Cardinals (64-65) to Target Field Sunday for the finale of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Twins have lost 4 of their last 6 games. After losing 6-1 as +137 underdogs in the Friday opener, they won 6-0 as -135 favorites Saturday — the Under hit in both meetings. Minnesota is 3-4 in its last 7 home games, 37-25 at Target Field on the season, and 62-67 on the run line overall. The Twins are tied with the Kansas City Royals for 2nd place in the AL Central, 2 games back of the division-leading Cleveland Guardians.
The Cardinals have won 3 of their last 4 games and are in 3rd place in the NL Central, 11 games behind the 1st-place Milwaukee Brewers. In a series against the Brewers Tuesday through Thursday, St. Louis won 2 of 3 games and outscored Milwaukee 15-9. The Cardinals are 64-65 on the run line this season and 30-35 straight up on the road.
Cardinals at Twins projected starters
RHP Erick Fedde vs. RHP Zebby Matthews
Fedde (8-7, 3.39 ERA) makes his 26th start (5th with St. Louis). He has a 1.18 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 through 143 1/3 innings with the Cardinals and Chicago White Sox.
- Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 2 K in 3-2 home setback against Brewers Tuesday
- 2024 away stats: 2-4, 4.52 ERA (79 2/3 IP, 40 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 in 14 starts
- Was acquired from White Sox July 29
- Career vs. Twins: 1-0, 0.82 ERA (11 IP, 1 ER), 0.82 WHIP, 13.1 K/9 in 2 starts this year with White Sox
Matthews (1-1, 3.60 ERA) makes his 3rd start. The rookie has a 1.10 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 through 10 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 2 ER (5 R), 4 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 5-3 defeat at San Diego Padres Monday
- Has never faced Cardinals
- Is No. 6 prospect in Twins organization
- 2024 stats with Triple-A St. Paul: 1-2, 5.68 ERA (19 IP, 12 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 in 4 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Cardinals at Twins odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cardinals +116 (bet $100 to win $116) | Twins -136 (bet $136 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-182) | Twins -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Cardinals at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 4, Cardinals 3
Moneyline
BET TWINS (-136).
The Twins are the 6th-best team in MLB at home this season and have won 9 of their last 13 home games. The rookie Matthews is 1-0 at home.
The Cardinals are 5 games below .500 on the road this season, so they haven’t played well in away games.
Take TWINS (-136).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There’s just no good value here. The Cardinals are far too expensive as run-line underdogs, while the Twins are too risky as run-line favorites, especially considering how well St. Louis has been playing.
Avoid this play.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-105).
The Cardinals have gone Under in 6 of their last 7 games, scoring 3 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 6. They are 60-65-4 O/U on the season, so they have just slightly trended more towards the Under as well.
The Twins are 6-4 O/U in their last 10 games and have scored 5 or fewer runs in 8 of their last 10. Given both pitchers have an ERA under 4.00, there’s a good chance the first several innings don’t produce many runs. Back UNDER 8.5 (-105).
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