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The Houston Astros (69-59) and Baltimore Orioles (75-55) play Game 3 of their 4-game series Saturday. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is set for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Astros lead 4-1
Houston had their 4-game win streak over the Orioles snapped Friday night, blowing a 5-2 lead in the 8th inning. RHP Hunter Brown was saddled with a no-decision after being nearly flawless, allowing only a solo home run over 6 innings. The Astros offense came from a 2-run home run from 2B Jose Abreu and a solo shot from SS Jeremy Pena.
Through 7 innings, it looked like the Orioles were going to drop their 5th straight game to the Astros and suffer their 6th loss in their last 8 games before late inning heroics. RF Anthony Santander hit a grand slam in the bottom of the 8th inning to propel them to a 7-5 victory. Baltimore also got a solo home run from CF Colton Cowser.
Astros at Orioles projected starters
LHP Framber Valdez vs. RHP Albert Suarez
Valdez (13-5, 3.20 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 137 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 2-0 victory against the Chicago White Sox Sunday
- 2024 home splits: 6-3, 3.46 ERA (67 2/3 IP, 29 R (26 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 in 11 starts
- 4 career regular-season starts vs. BAL: 1-0, 4.10 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 23 K in 26 1/3 IP
Suarez (6-4, 3.18 ERA) makes his 18th start and 26th appearance. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 96 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 4-2 victory against the Boston Red Sox Sunday
- 2024 home splits: 3-1, 2.36 ERA (45 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 in 11 games
- Only start vs Astros: Loss, 5 IP, 5 ER, 10 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 8-1 road loss on June 23
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Astros at Orioles odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:49 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Astros -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Orioles +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Astros -1.5 (+132) | Orioles +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -122)
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Astros at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 6, Orioles 2
Moneyline
PASS.
I like the Astros (-120) to bounce back Saturday afternoon. I believe they can cover the run line, so I’ll take the better odds and leave the moneyline alone.
BET ASTROS -1.5 (+132).
Despite the loss Friday night, the Astros have dominated this series against Baltimore. They’ve outscored the Orioles 38-20 over their 5 games thus far. That will continue Saturday afternoon with Valdez on the mound. This dude hasn’t lost since late June and shut down the Orioles (7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, & 7 K) in his last start against them. Houston has dropped its team ERA nearly a full point since the All-Star break.
Meanwhile, the Orioles have gone in the opposite direction, their team ERA has risen a full point since the All-Star break. Suarez has not allowed an earned run in his last 3 starts, but this Astros team roughed him up earlier this season.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-122).
The trends are pushing me towards the Under, and Vegas feels the same way. Valdez has allowed more than 2 earned runs just once in his last 7 starts. The Under has hit in both Valdez and Suarez last 3 starts.
Both teams are 6-4 against the Under in their last 10 games. .
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