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The Cleveland Guardians (67-47) and Minnesota Twins (63-50) open a 4-game series, starting with a doubleheader Friday. First pitch of Game 2 from Target Field is set for 8:10 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
(Records, trends and stats do not include the 1st game of Friday’s doubleheader.)
Season series: Guardians lead 5-0
Cleveland enters with a 3½-game lead in the AL Central Division ahead of 2nd-place Minnesota. If the Twins were to pull off a sweep, they would find themselves in 1st place by Sunday evening. But so far, the Guardians have won all 5 meetings vs. the Twins, outscoring them 26-11.
Thanks to a Tuesday rainout, this is a back-to-back doubleheader for Cleveland, which lost 2 games at home to the Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday — the Guardians had Thursday off. The Guardians limp into the Twin Cities on a 5-game losing streak. In fact, their longest previous skid was just 3 games, but no one is pushing the panic button just yet.
Injuries to the starting pitching staff are adding up, but Friday marks the team debut of RHP Alex Cobb, who was acquired from the San Francisco Giants at the non-waiver trade deadline. Cobb started the season on the 60-day injured list as he recovered from a hip surgery and inflammation in his right shoulder.
The Over has cashed in 6 of the past 7 games for the Guardians, but the Under is 4-1 in their 5 meetings with the Twins this season. The Over is on a 5-1-1 tear for the Twins in the previous 7 contests, while going 9-3-1 in the past 13 outings.
Minnesota had a 5-game win streak but lost the final 2 games at Wrigley Field to the Chicago Cubs. The Twins have won 4 in a row at home, and the Over is 3-0-1 in those victories.
Guardians at Twins projected starters
RHP Alex Cobb vs. RHP Louie Varland
Cobb, acquired in a deadline deal with the Giants, makes his season and Cleveland debut. The 12-year veteran (6 seasons with Tampa Bay, 3 with Baltimore, 1 with L.A. Angels and 2 with San Francisco) had been on the shelf recovering from hip surgery, while also nursing shoulder inflammation. The right-hander went 7-7 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 28 starts (2 complete games) last season for San Francisco.
- 2023 road splits (w/Giants): 2-5, 5.70 ERA (77 1/3 IP, 49 ER), 1.59 WHIP, .312 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 1.59 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 in 16 starts
- Career vs. Twins: 4-3, 4.86 ERA (50 IP, 27 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 in 10 starts
- Last start: Loss, 2 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 8-4 road setback vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Sept. 19, 2023
Varland (0-4, 6.58 ERA) makes his 6th start (7th appearance). He has a 1.65 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 26 innings. He’s getting called up for this one after 7 appearances with Triple-A St. Paul since being sent down.
- Last MLB outing: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP of relief, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 8-7 home win vs. Oakland A’s June 16
- Last MLB start: No-decision, 5 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 5-4 home loss vs. Colorado Rockies June 11
- 2024 home splits: 0-2, 6.35 ERA (17 IP, 12 ER), 1.41 WHIP, .246 OBA, 8 BB, 15 K in 3 starts (4 appearances)
- Career vs. Guardians: 0-1, 4.50 ERA (8 IP, 4 ER), 10 H, 1 HR, 3 BB, 5 K in 1 start and 1 relief appearance
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Guardians at Twins odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:31 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Twins -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+158) | Twins +1.5 (-192)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -122)
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Guardians at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 6, Twins 5
Moneyline
The GUARDIANS (-108) are the lean in the nightcap of this double dip. Cleveland has dominated the Twins (-108) this season, and it should be able to knock around the Minnesota native Varland, who has struggled all season, particularly at home.
It won’t be easy for the Guards, though, as Cobb had tremendous difficulty last season on the road for the Giants. Rust could be a factor for him, as well.
Run line/Against the spread
Betting Twins +1.5 (-192) will set you back nearly 2 times the potential return. That’s way too much risk for not nearly enough reward on the run line as underdogs.
AVOID and bet Twins straight up if you like them.
Over/Under
OVER 8.5 (+100) might be the best play on the board in this Game 2, especially at even-money.
Cleveland cashed high in 6 of the past 7 games entering play Friday, and it will hand the ball to Cobb, who will be making his first MLB start in over 10 months.
On the flip side, the Twins have the erratic Varland on the bump, so offense should be plentiful. The Over is 5-1-1 in the past 7 games for the Twins, while cashing at a 3-0-1 clip in the past 4 outings at Target Field.
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