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The Minnesota Twins (58-48) and New York Mets (57-50) close out a 3-game series Wednesday. First pitch from Citi Field is at 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mets lead 2-0
The Twins are 2-3 on their current road trip and have lost the 1st 2 games of this series. After a 15-2 beatdown in the Monday opener, they were shut out 2-0 Tuesday.
The Mets have won 2 in a row and 7 of their last 9 games.
Twins at Mets projected starters
RHP Pablo Lopez vs. RHP Luis Severino
Lopez (9-7, 4.73 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 through 118 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 9-3 road victory over Detroit Tigers Friday
- Has 2.37 ERA over his last 3 starts; has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 5 of his last 6
- Career vs. Mets: 4-5, 5.54 ERA (65 IP, 40 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 in 12 starts, including 0-0 with 0.00 ERA (8 IP) in 1 start last year
Severino (7-3, 3.58 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 through 120 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 3-2 home win over Atlanta Braves Thursday
- Is 2-0 with 2.08 ERA over his last 3 starts
- Career vs. Twins (regular season): 0-1, 4.15 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 in 2 starts — last start in 2018
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Twins at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Mets -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+150) | Mets +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Twins at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 4, Twins 2
Moneyline
The Twins have been swept only twice all season. Both times were against the New York Yankees.
They are 24-34 against teams with winning records.
The METS (-110) are 30-28 at home and 31-31 against teams with winning records.
Both starters have been great in July, but the Twins have struggled on offense recently. They have only 2 runs scored in the series and have been held to 2 or fewer in 3 of their last 4 games.
BET METS (-110).
Run line/Against the spread
The Mets are 54-53 ATS overall this season, while Minnesota is 49-57 ATS. The Mets are 27-30 ATS at home, while the Twins are 29-27 ATS on the road.
That is not overwhelming in either direction, but since we’re expecting a Mets win, betting them to cover at -185 odds isn’t worth the action.
PASS.
Over/Under
Severino’s last 3 starts have not surpassed 8 total runs.
Lopez’s last 3 outings and 5 of 6 have not surpassed 8 runs.
BET UNDER 8.5 (-115).
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