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The Los Angeles Dodgers (62-42) take on the Houston Astros (53-49) Friday in the opener of a 3-game set at Minute Maid Park at 8:10 p.m. ET (Apple TV) Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Dodgers vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Dodgers won 2-1 last year
The Dodgers come to town winners of 6 of 7 after taking 3 of 4 from the San Francisco Giants. Thursday’s win was a 6-4 final as LHP Clayton Kershaw made his season debut following shoulder surgery. He allowed 2 runs on 6 hits and fanned 6 over 4 IP. DH Shohei Ohtani hit his 31st homer in the affair.
The Astros snapped a 3-game losing streak with an 8-1 win in Oakland Wednesday. They lost 2 of the 3 to the lowly A’s, though. Astros 2B Jose Altuve, 3B Alex Bregman and C Yainer Diaz all had 2 RBIs each. SS Jeremy Pena is heating up, hitting .444 with 2 homers and 4 RBIs.
Dodgers at Astros projected starters
RHP Gavin Stone vs. LHP Framber Valdez
Stone (9-3, 3.19 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 through 101 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 4-1 home win July 19 against Boston Red Sox
- Never faced Astros before
- Home/road splits: 6-2, 2.83 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 in 8 road starts; 3-1, 3.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6.7 K/9 in 10 home starts
Valdez (8-5, 3.63 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 104 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 6 K in 4-2 win Saturday at Seattle Mariners
- 2 career starts vs. Dodgers: 0-1, 7.71 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9 K in 9 1/3 IP
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Dodgers at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:34 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Dodgers +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Astros -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers +1.5 (-190) | Astros -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Dodgers at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Dodgers 3, Astros 2
Moneyline
Both of Valdez’s starts against the Dodgers came in 2020, so I don’t put much stock in those numbers. The Dodgers are hitting .265 against left-handed pitchers (vs. .251 against righties). They are also 26-11 against lefties. They’re playing a better brand of baseball, and I’ll take the plus-money with the DODGERS +105.
Run line/Against the spread
I’m not interested in either side of the RL. I am keying on GAVIN STONE UNDER 4.5 K’S (-140). Stone has 3 K’s in each of his last 3 starts. Houston is the 3rd-toughest to K in the league.
Over/Under
It’s projected to be 79 degrees with a 6-mph wind blowing in from left-center. Both teams are 5-5 O/U in their last 10. The Under has cashed in 4 of Stone’s last 5 starts and 2 of the last 3 for Valdez.
Take the UNDER 8.5 (-115).
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