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The Houston Astros (46-43) and Minnesota Twins (50-39) meet Sunday as they close out a 3-game series. First pitch from Target Field is slated for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
Houston lost Saturday’s game 9-3, snapping a 3-game win streak. The 3 runs marked an aberration for the Astros, who had gone 13-2 while averaging 7.00 runs per game their previous 15.
Minnesota bats have cranked out 33 runs over the last 3 days. With a double and 2 home runs Saturday, the Twins have collected 16 extra-base hits since Thursday.
Astros at Twins projected starters
RHP Spencer Arrighetti vs. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson
Arrighetti (4-7, 6.13 ERA) is making his 16th start. The 24-year-old rookie has a 1.65 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 69 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 4 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 5 K in 4-2 setback at Milwaukee Brewers Friday
- Never faced Twins before
Woods Richardson (3-1, 3.52 ERA) is tabbed for his 15th start. He owns a 1.13 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 71 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 5-3 home win vs. Detroit Tigers Tuesday
- Pitching on 4 days of rest for 1st time since June 2, when he yielded 3 runs in 4 1/3 IP against these Astros (has allowed .671 OPS for his career but .917 mark when pitching on 4 days of rest)
- Career vs. Astros: 0-0, 6.23 ERA (4 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 1 start, a 4-3 road win June 2
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Astros at Twins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:10 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Twins -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-190) | Twins -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Astros at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 6, Twins 4
Moneyline
Houston is 3-1 in its last 4 games at Target Field. The Astros are 8-3 across their last 11 road games.
Peg these 2 starting pitchers as being picks to regress. Both have expected-ERA figures separated from their surface ERAs being sizable margins. And look for Arrighetti’s regression to be worthy of backing and Woods Richardson’s as being worthy of fading.
Arrighetti has been touched up by a .351 batting average on balls in play. He does walk too many batters, but he comeswith less downside than his mound opposite in this one.
Woods Richardson gives up louder contact, but he’s been aided by a .255 BABIP.
The Astros have won 6 straight series finales. Levering a return available on FanDuel Sportsbook, BACK HOUSTON (+110).
Run line/Against the spread
Better relative value on the less juicy ML. PASS.
Over/Under
The Over has cashed in 7 straight Minnesota games and in 8 of Houston’s last 10 on the road.
There is just a small systemic Over lean in Minnesota’s team numbers (look for slightly higher all-around scoring in Twins games). Minnesota’s offense has been solid at home. In road games, the Astros got off to a slow start offensively. But heading into Saturday, they had a robust .808 OPS across their 9 previous away games.
With some end-of-the-week fatigued relievers on both sides, expect some tilt on the upside of this one. BACK THE OVER 9 (+100).
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