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The Cleveland Guardians (51-26) and Baltimore Orioles (49-30) wrap up a 3-game series Wednesday. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Guardians lead 2-0
The Guardians won their 7th straight game Tuesday, winning a seesaw battle 10-8. Cleveland has won the 1st 2 games between these playoff hopefuls, and it looks for its 1st series road sweep since May 24-26 against the Los Angeles Angels.
The Orioles have dropped 5 consecutive outings. The good news from Tuesday’s 10-8 loss is that the offense picked up the pace after plating just 4 runs in the previous 3 outings. The Over is now 5-2 in the past 7 games, and 7-3-1 in the past 10 contests.
The underdog has cashed in 3 straight meetings in this series, while holding a 6-4 edge in the previous 10 battles. The Under also had a 6-4 edge in the past 10 in the series.
Guardians at Orioles projected starters
RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. RHP Grayson Rodriguez
Carrasco (3-6, 5.40 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 65 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H (solo HR), 0 BB, 7 K in 7-1 home win vs. Toronto Blue Jays Friday
- 2024 road splits: 1-3, 5.95 ERA (39 1/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.27 WHIP, .247 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 6 HR, 12 BB, 30 K in 8 starts
- Career vs. Orioles: 4-2, 2.06 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 39 1/3 IP, 9 ER, 2 HR, 8.5 K/9 in 6 starts and 1 relief appearance
Rodriguez (8-3, 3.82 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 75 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 7 ER, 9 H (1 HR), 2 BB, 8 K in 14-11 road loss vs. Houston Astros Friday
- 2024 home splits: 4-2, 5.35 ERA (38 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.47 WHIP, .277 OBA, 5 HR, 13 BB, 44 K in 7 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Guardians at Orioles odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:13 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Orioles -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-120) | Orioles -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Guardians at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 6, Guardians 4
Moneyline
The Orioles (-190) are a little too pricey for a team which has dropped 5 straight outings. It’s also especially risky since it is playing the Guardians (+155), the best AL team in terms of winning percentage.
If anything, it might be worth a roll of the dice on Cleveland, but Carrasco has had a tough season, and it’s not easy to trust him.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The ORIOLES -1.5 (+100) are worth playing lightly on the run line at plus-money.
Again, Baltimore has dropped 5 straight games, but it has 22 victories dating back to May 17, and 21 of those wins have come by 2 or more runs. So, if you like the O’s to get the job done in the series finale, then you should like them to cash on the run line, too.
Over/Under
OVER 9.5 (+100) is the lean, so go with a half-unit at most here, too.
The Over is on a 7-3-1 run in the past 11 outings for the Orioles, with the pitching staff responsible for much of that. The O’s have conceded 51 across the past 7 games, or 7.3 RPG.
Cleveland has hit the Over at a 6-2-1 clip in the past 9 outings, including Tuesday’s 10-8 slugfest win in Charm City.
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