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The Cleveland Guardians (43-22) take on the Cincinnati Reds (32-35) Wednesday in the finale of a 2-game set at Great American Ball Park at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Guardians lead 1-0
The Guardians have won 3 straight after a 5-3 W over the Reds Tuesday. Guardians 1B Josh Naylor hit his 17th homer of the season and drove in 3. The Guardians are tied for 2nd in baseball with 5.1 R/game. Their pitching is delivering as well with the 6th-best ERA at 3.42.
The Reds have lost 2 in a row after a 7-game winning streak. SS Elly De La Cruz is having a sophomore slump, hitting just .232 with 11 HR and 29 RBIs. He’s lethal when he does reach base, though, with 34 steals already.
Guardians at Reds projected starters
RHP Tanner Bibee vs. LHP Nick Lodolo
Bibee (4-1, 3.73 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 70 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 4-3 home loss Thursday against Kansas City Royals
- Has never faced Reds before
- Home/road splits: Away – 2-0, 2.20 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 6 GS; Home – 2-1, 5.06 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 in 7 GS
Lodolo (6-2, 2.92 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 0.99 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 52 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 3-2 home victory Wednesday against Houston Astros
- 1 career start vs. Cleveland: Loss, 4 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 7-3 home setback April 13, 2022
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Guardians at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Reds -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+155) | Reds +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Guardians at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 4, Guardians 2
Moneyline
This should be a good game. Both pitchers are throwing well and can rack up the K’s. GABP is a bit of a bandbox, but Lodolo has been solid there with a 3-1 mark and a 3.25 ERA. He limits the Guardians’ bats in a low-scoring one.
Take the REDS -110.
Run line/Against the spread
The Reds are expensive dogs on the RL here, and I’m going a different direction.
This prop contains a lot of juice, but it makes a lot of sense. The Guardians are the 4th-toughest to to strike out, and Lodolo has only hit 7 K’s once in his last 5 starts.
Take NICK LODOLO UNDER 6.5 K’S (-175).
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Over/Under
The weather shouldn’t be much of a factor. It’s slated to be 81 degrees with a light, 2-mph gust blowing in from right-center. Both pitchers are dealing. Cleveland is 3-6-1 O/U over its last 10, and the Reds are 4-5-1.
I’ll take the UNDER 8 (-105).
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