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The Minnesota Twins (31-25) and Houston Astros (25-32) open a 3-game set at Minute Maid Park Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Astros beat Twins 3-1 in 2023 ALDS
The Twins won 7-6 over the Kansas City Royals Thursday as the Over (8.5) hit. Minnesota took 3 of 4 games in the set, cashing as a -157 home favorite in the series finale. C Ryan Jeffers hit 2 HRs for the Twins, who have won 7 of their last 9 games.
Houston avoided a 4-game sweep with a 4-0 win at the Seattle Mariners Thursday as the Under (7.5) cashed for a 6th straight Astros game. RHP Spencer Arrighetti allowed just 2 hits in 6 innings for Houston, which closed as a +118 underdog.
The Twins won last year’s regular-season series 4-2.
Twins at Astros projected starters
RHP Pablo López vs. RHP Ronel Blanco
López (4-5, 5.25 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 60 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 6-2 home setback vs. Texas Rangers Sunday
- 2024 road stats: 2-2, 6.00 ERA (27 IP, 18 ER), 1.07 WHIP in 5 starts
- 2023 ALDS vs. Astros: 1-0, 0.00 ERA (7 IP), 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 6-2 road win Oct. 8
- Career vs. Astros (regular season): 0-0, 4.15 ERA (4 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 1 start, a 7-4 road win June 10, 2022
Blanco (5-0, 1.99 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 54 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 5-2 victory at Oakland A’s Sunday
- 2024 home stats: 1-0, 1.88 ERA (24 IP, 5 ER), 0.92 WHIP in 4 starts
- Career vs. Twins: 0-0, 36.00 ERA (1 IP, 4 ER), 4 H, 2 BB, 0 K in 1 relief appearance, a 9-6 road loss April 8, 2023
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Twins at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:02 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Astros -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+155) | Astros +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Twins at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 4, Twins 3
Moneyline
The ASTROS (-115) have been a huge letdown this season, but they’re 8-1 in Blanco’s starts, and the 1 loss was on the road in extra innings. Blanco has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 8 of his 9 starts this year, while López has given up a total of 13 ER over his last 2 outings (9 2/3 IP).
BET ASTROS (-115).
Run line/Against the spread
This will most likely be a 1-run game, but laying -190 in MLB is a losing proposition long term.
PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.
Over/Under
The Under has hit in 6 straight Astros games, and Blanco’s last 3 starts have ended with 7 or fewer total runs scored. However, López has allowed a total of 25 hits over his last 3 starts (16 IP), and if Houston can take advantage, this Under will likely be in trouble.
LEAN UNDER 8 (-110).
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