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The Boston Red Sox (26-25) welcome the Milwaukee Brewers (29-21) to Fenway Park Saturday. First pitch in the 2nd game of the 3-game series is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Brewers lead 1-0
The Brewers beat the Red Sox 7-2 to kick off the series, covering as underdogs and closing at +117 on the moneyline. Milwaukee, which sits atop the NL Central, is 3-4 straight up over its last 7 games and just 5-6 over its last 11. The Brewers are 28-22 against the spread (ATS) on the season.
The Red Sox saw their 4-game winning streak snapped with the loss Friday. They had swept the Tampa Bay Rays in the series prior. That win streak piggybacked off a 4-game losing streak. Boston sits 3rd in the AL East and is 23-28 ATS. It is 7-6 over its last 13 games.
Brewers at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Colin Rea vs. RHP Nick Pivetta
Rea (3-2, 4.07 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 48 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 4 BB, 5 K in 9-4 road loss to Houston Astros Sunday
- 2024 away splits: 1-1, 4.74 ERA (24 IP, 9 ER), 21 H, 4 HR, 6 BB, 17 K in 5 starts
- Never faced Red Sox before
Pivetta (2-2, 3.04 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 0.83 WHIP, 0.7 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 26 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 11-3 road win over St. Louis Cardinals Sunday
- 2024 home stats: 0-0, 3.18 ERA (5 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 4 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 1 start, a 5-4 win in 12 innings vs. Rays May 14
- Career vs. Brewers: 1-2, 9.19 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.85 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 in 3 starts
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Brewers at Red Sox odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Brewers +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Red Sox -142 (bet $142 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Brewers +1.5 (-166) | Red Sox -1.5 (+138)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -122)
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Brewers at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 6, Red Sox 4
Moneyline
BET BREWERS (+120).
Boston is the 6th-worst home team in MLB with a 10-14 straight up record at Fenway, and its starting pitcher, Pivetta, has struggled heavily in his career against the Brewers.
Milwaukee is the flip of that and is a strong 17-12 on the road this season. The Brewers are 16-12 following a win as well. They are 4-2 in Rea’s last 6 starts.
Back BREWERS (+120).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Brewers as run-line underdogs are just too expensive, and the moneyline offers better value. While the Red Sox are enticing here, their home struggles diminish any value.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 9.5 (+100).
The Brewers have gone Over in 5 of their last 10 games, but they have been hot offensively for most of the season with a 29-20-1 O/U record. Milwaukee has scored at least 7 in 2 of its last 3.
The Red Sox might be 19-29-3 O/U, but they have gone Over in 5 of their last 8 games, scoring at least 5 runs in 4 of their last 5. Back OVER 9.5 (+100).
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