[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
The Cleveland Guardians (26-16) and Texas Rangers (22-21) play the 2nd game of a 3-game series Tuesday. First pitch from Globe Life Field is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Rangers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Cleveland leads 1-0
Cleveland won Monday’s series lid-lifter 7-0 and has won back-to-back games, both by that same score. The Guardians went 5 for 12 with runners in scoring position Monday.
With Monday’s loss, Texas has dropped 4 in a row. Over that span, the Rangers have scored just 6 runs while slashing .200/.261/.262 (.522 OPS).
Guardians at Rangers projected starters
RHP Ben Lively vs. RHP Jack Leiter
Lively (1-2, 2.63 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 27 1/3 innings.
- Last outing: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 3-2 loss at Chicago White Sox Thursday
- Has never faced Rangers before
- Has his ERA buoyed by a .250 opponents’ BABIP with RISP and is a fly-ball pitcher with a low 5.3% of his fly balls leaving the park
Leiter (0-0, 12.91 ERA) is lined up for his 3rd start. He has a 2.35 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 7 2/3 innings.
- Made his last 2 starts at Triple-A Round Rock (2 ER in 11 IP); expected to be recalled for this turn against Cleveland
- Has struggled as a pro after clocking a 2.08 ERA across 22 games for Vanderblt in 2020-21; was the 2nd overall selection in the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft
- Has never faced Cleveland before
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers Draft Prep and full-season subscriptions. Sign up today and start winning!
Guardians at Rangers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Guardians -105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Rangers -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+150) | Rangers +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Guardians at Rangers picks and predictions
Prediction
Rangers 6, Guardians 4
Moneyline
The Guardians’ 26 wins figure as a number 4-6 wins heavy for the support analytics under the hood. A .312 BABIP in high-leverage situations has helped. A bullpen yielding a mere .270 BABIP has helped the defense-and-pitching part of the equation. Cleveland has 6 extra-innings victories, and that has certainly helped.
Overall, in many games in the near-term, the Guardians should be two-thirds to a fade (and then make adjustments based on the mound match-up).
This mound duel doesn’t offer up much for Cleveland’s foe, however. Leiter has had his struggles everywhere this year and over his minor-league career. And the Texas bullpen has been awful (5.35 ERA with a shaky 5.0 BB/9).
On the plus side, the Rangers offense is swung around to its best platoon splits when facing right-handers (.723 OPS). And Texas owns a .724 OPS at home and a .740 OPS against fly-ballers.
Maybe not on a full-unit basis, but TEXAS (-115) is the value play here.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS: More juice equals less room for betting leverage.
Over/Under
With some overall pitching fade and some play to the Texas offensive numbers (undervalued to to multiple subpar BABIPs on key leverage situations), the Over is the value side here.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the better leverage price: TAKE THE OVER 9 (-115).
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]