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The Boston Red Sox (19-18) welcome the Washington Nationals to Fenway Park on Friday for the 1st game of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Boston won 2 of 3 games last season
The Red Sox are coming off back-to-back losses to the Atlanta Braves, dropping the 2nd game 5-0 Wednesday. Boston has lost 5 of its last 6 games; however, it is 4-1 in its last 5 home games. The Red Sox are 18-19 against the spread (ATS) on the season and 7-9 at home.
The Nationals lost to the Baltimore Orioles 7-6 Wednesday, but did split the 2-game series. They have won 3 of their last 5 games and are 7-3 in their last 10 on the road. Washington is 23-13 ATS on the season and 11-8 on the road.
Nationals at Red Sox projected starters
LHP Patrick Corbin vs. RHP Tanner Houck
Corbin (0-3, 6.45 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.81 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 in 37 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 9-3 home win vs. Toronto Blue Jays Friday
- 2024 road splits: 0-2, 8.85 ERA, 20 1/3 IP, 20 ER, 35 H (4 HR), 7 BB, 13 K in 4 starts
- Career vs. Boston: 1-2, 5.27 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.68 WHIP, 21 H, 2 BB, 14 K in 3 starts
Houck (3-3, 1.99 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 0.97 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 45 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 5-2 road loss vs. Minnesota Twins Friday
- 2024 road splits: 2-2, 1.88 ERA, 24 IP, 5 ER, 18 H (0 HR), 7 BB, 26 K in 4 starts
- Career vs. Washington: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (5 IP, 0 ER), 0 WHIP, 0 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 1 start
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Nationals at Red Sox odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:51 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Nationals +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Red Sox -215 (bet $215 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-118) | Red Sox -1.5 (-102)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -104 | U: -118)
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Nationals at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 6, Nationals 5
Moneyline
PASS.
The Red Sox have a major pitching advantage and should come out on top. They are far too pricey at -215 though.
Run line/Against the spread
LEAN NATIONALS +1.5 (-118).
The Nationals have won 3 of their last 5 and covered in 1 of their 2 losses as well. They have covered in 9 of their last 12 games and are a league-best 14-5 ATS on the road. The Red Sox haven’t played as well as of late and are just 2-9 ATS as a home favorite this season.
Boston is just 2-2 ATS in its last 4 home games and has lost 5 of its last 6, all by at least 2 runs. With that in mind, despite the pitching disadvantage, back NATIONALS +1.5 (-118).
Over/Under
BET OVER 8.5 (-104).
The Nationals have gone Over in 4 of their last 5 games and have been red-hot offensively, scoring at least 6 runs in 3 of their last 5 and at least 9 in 2 of those games. They are 8-3 O/U in their last 11.
The Red Sox have given up at least 4 runs in 3 of their last 5 and, while they have been struggling offensively, will be facing a pitcher with a 6.45 ERA.
Expect Boston’s offensive to bounce back and Washington’s offense to stay hot. Take OVER 8.5 (-104).
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