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The Cincinnati Reds (16-20) meet the Arizona Diamondbacks (17-20) at Great American Ball Park Thursday. First pitch in the finale of the 3-game series is set for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Diamondbacks lead 2-0
The Reds lost to the Diamondbacks 4-3 Wednesday, closing at -108 on the moneyline. They have now lost a season-long 7 straight games and have lost 4 series in a row as well. Cincinnati has relapsed after a 9-6 start to the season. It is 9-12 at home.
The Diamondbacks, having beaten Cincinnati by 1 Wednesday and by 4 runs on Tuesday, have won 3 straight games. They are just 5-7 over their last 12 and 17-19 against the spread (ATS). Arizona had lost 4 straight series prior to winning the 1st 2 in Cincinnati. It is 8-10 on the road.
Diamondbacks at Reds projected starters
RHP Slade Cecconi vs. RHP Hunter Greene
Cecconi (1-2, 4.96 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 0.80 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 16 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 7-1 home loss vs. San Diego Padres Friday
- 2024 road splits: 1-1, 2.25 ERA, 12 IP, 3 ER, 5 H (1 HR), 1 BB, 11 K in 2 starts
- Career vs. Cincinnati: 0-0, 1.59 ERA (5 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 0.53 WHIP, 3 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 1 start
Greene (1-2, 3.12 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 40 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 5 K in 3-0 home loss vs. Baltimore Orioles Friday
- 2024 home splits: 0-2, 3.99 ERA, 29 1/3 IP, 13 ER, 26 H (2 HR), 12 BB, 33 K in 5 starts
- Career vs. Arizona: 1-1, 4.22 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 6 H, 5 BB, 12 K in 2 starts
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Diamondbacks at Reds odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:21 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks -102 (bet $102 to win $100) | Reds -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks -1.5 (+152) | Reds +1.5 (-184)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -114 | U: -106)
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Diamondbacks at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 4, Diamondbacks 3
Moneyline
BET REDS (-120).
The Reds have given up 4 or fewer runs in 3 of Greene’s last 4 starts. He should provide an advantage for Cincinnati given Cecconi is coming off his worst performance of the season. The Diamondbacks are 1-2 with Cecconi on the mound.
Arizona also has both struggled on the road and to close out series. It has yet to sweep a team this season and is just 8-10 straight up on the road. The Diamondbacks are 5-11 straight up after a win, the fifth-worst win rate in the situation.
Considering those trends, back REDS (-120) to avoid a sweep.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Reds have been in a slump and aren’t worth a play as a very expensive run-line underdog. Similarly, the Diamondbacks aren’t worth the risk at a run-line favorite.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 9 (-106).
The Diamondbacks have gone Under in 2 straight games and are 2-5 O/U in their last 7. They are 0-2-1 O/U in Cecconi’s 3 starts and are 15-20-1 O/U on the season.
While Cincinnati is 18-16-1 O/U, its offense has disappeared over the last week. It has failed to score more than 3 runs in 6 straight games and has gone Under in 4 of its last 5.
Back UNDER 9.5 (-115).
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