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The New York Yankees (17-9) take on the Milwaukee Brewers (16-8) Friday in the opener of a 3-game set at American Family Field at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Brewers won 2-1 last year
The Yanks dropped Thursday’s tilt 3-1 at home against the Oakland Athletics. They split the 4-game series and scored 1 total run in the 2 losses. The Yankees are 5-5 over their last 10 games. OF Aaron Judge has yet to find his stroke, hitting just .186 with 4 HRs and 13 RBIs.
The Brew Crew took the final 2 of a 4-game series in Pittsburgh. They won 7-5 Thursday and sit atop the NL Central. C William Contreras is tearing the cover off the ball, hitting .365 with 5 HRs and 22 RBIs.
Yankees at Brewers projected starters
RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Colin Rea
Gil (1-1, 2.75 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 7.8 BB/9 and 13.3 K/9 in 19 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 9 K Sunday against Tampa Bay Rays
- Has never faced Milwaukee
- Leads the league with 17 BB
Rea (2-0, 2.08 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 in 21 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 3 K Sunday against St. Louis Cardinals
- 2 career starts vs. Yankees: 1-0, 2.53 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 11 K in 10 2/3 IP
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Yankees at Brewers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:02 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Yankees -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Brewers +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+135) | Brewers +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Yankees at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 6, Brewers 3
Moneyline
We have a clash between 2 very different pitchers. Gil, who has walked the ballpark, touches 97 on his fastball. He has a 2.94 FIP, which is fielding independent pitching and measures a pitcher’s ability to prevent homers, free passes and create strikeouts.
Rea will consistently be around 92, and despite having a 2.08 ERA, his FIP is 4.02. I look for the Yankees to jump on Rea. His 2.53 ERA against the Yanks looks great, but one start was in 2016.
Take the YANKEES -125.
Run line/Against the spread
The Brewers scored 7 runs Thursday, but they scored just 8 runs in the previous 4 games. While the Yankees are inconsistent offensively, they have plated 4+ runs in 6 of 10 games.
Take the YANKEES -1.5 (+135).
Over/Under
Rain is expected, which means the roof should be closed. Each team is 4-6 O/U over the last 10 games. In 3 games in this park in late 2022, we had totals of 20, 5 and 13.
I’ll take the OVER 8.5 (-115).
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