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The Toronto Blue Jays (2-3) take on the Houston Astros (1-4) Tuesday in the 2nd of a 3-game set at Minute Maid Park at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Astros lead 1-0
We saw history Monday night when Astros RHP Ronel Blanco threw a no-hitter against the Jays in a 10-0 victory. Jays SP Bowden Francis roughed it through 5 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 10 H, 1 BB and struck out 7. 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had the hat trick with 3 K’s Monday.
Blanco pitched all 9 innings, allowing 2 walks and striking out 7 over the hitless frames. OF Kyle Tucker, who is my breakout candidate this season, hit 2 homers and drove in 4. We cashed 2 of the 3 bets here, as the Blue Jays run line didn’t cash, but the Astros ML and Over 9 did.
Blue Jays at Astros projected starters
RHP Jose Berrios vs. RHP Framber Valdez
Berrios (1-0, 3.00 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He went 6 IP, allowing 2 ER on 6 H and 1 BB while fanning 6 in his win over the Tampa Bay Rays Thursday.
- 2023 road stats: 5-6 with a 3.97 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 8.2 K/9 in 17 GS vs. 6-6, 3.30 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 9.3 K/9 in 15 home GS
- Last 5 starts vs. HOU: 4-1, 2.48 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 23 K in 32 2/3 IP
Valdez (0-0, 5.79 ERA) allowed 3 ER on 5 H and 6 BB while fanning 5 in 4 2/3 IP in his no-decision against the New York Yankees Thursday.
- 2023 home stats: 4-8, 3.35 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 in 16 GS vs. 8-3, 3.56 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 8.7 K/9 in 15 road GS.
- 4 career starts vs. Toronto: 1-3, 5.48 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 20 K in 23 IP
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Blue Jays at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:50 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Blue Jays +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Astros -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays +1.5 (-160) | Astros -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Blue Jays at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 4, Blue Jays 3
Moneyline
Valdez’s 6 walks in the opener are concerning because, dating back to last season, he now has 3+ walks in 3 straight starts and 14 combined. He has bad numbers against Toronto, but it is important to note that 3 of his 4 starts were in Toronto, and his lone win came at home in 2019. I look for some bounce back from Toronto, but Houston’s pen is in great shape, and I look for Valdez to iron out the kinks.
Take the ASTROS -155.
Run line/Against the spread
I’m passing on the RL here. I really like UNDER 4.5 TOTAL RUNS FIRST 5 INNINGS (-120).
Berrios has pitched surprisingly well against Houston. He dealt 7 IP in this building last year, allowing 2 ER on 3 H and a BB in a loss. The wind is expected to be blowing in at 18 mph this evening. Roll with that Under.
Over/Under
I thought about testing the Over 8.5 at even money here until I saw the wind forecast. The Over is 4-1 for Toronto on the young season and 1-3-1 for Houston. The Over is just 3-6-1 in the last 10 meetings between the clubs.
LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-120).
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