[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
The Milwaukee Brewers (1-0) and New York Mets (0-1) play the 2nd game of a 3-game set Saturday at Citi Field. First pitch is set for 1:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Brewers lead 1-0
The Brewers won the NL Central last season with a 92-70 record, going 43-38 on the road. After having their 1st game postponed, they started the 2024 season just how they finished 2023. Milwaukee kicked off the season hot with a 3-1 win over the Mets behind the stellar play of RHP Freddy Peralta.
The Mets, who finished 4th in the NL East a season ago with a 75-87 record, ended the 2023 season with a 43-38 home record. They failed to do much of anything offensively on Opening Day as they ended with a single hit, a home run from RF Starling Marte. With the No. 1 payroll in MLB, expectations are high for New York entering 2024.
Brewers at Mets projected starters
LHP DL Hall vs. RHP Luis Severino
Hall (3-0, 3.26 ERA in 2023) made 18 relief appearances last season for the Baltimore Orioles. He had a 1.19 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 19 1/3 innings.
- 2023 road stats: 1-0, 3.38 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 4 ER) in 9 relief appearances
- Has yet to face New York in his career
- His team is 5-3 when he goes for more than 1 IP
Severino (4-8, 6.65 ERA in 2023) made 18 starts and 1 relief appearance last season for the New York Yankees. He had a 1.65 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8 K/9 in 89 1/3 innings.
- 2023 home stats: 3-2, 4.87 ERA (40 2/3 IP, 22 ER) in 8 starts
- 2023 vs. Brewers: No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 1 start, an 8-2 home loss Sept. 8 with the Yankees
- Owned a 4-1 record when hitting at least 6 IP
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers Draft Prep and full-season subscriptions. Sign up today and start winning!
Brewers at Mets odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:15 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Brewers +106 (bet $100 to win $106) | Mets -124 (bet $124 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-194) | Mets -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Brewers at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 5, Mets 3
Moneyline
BET BREWERS (+106).
The Brewers clearly are going to rely heavily on their relief pitching, but that would’ve been a good strategy last year and should be a good one again. Milwaukee had the 2nd-best reliever ERA (3.40) a season ago. For Serevino, he’s coming off 1 of his worst professional seasons, as he had a career-high 6.65 ERA.
Considering the difference in pitching and that New York was able to get so little going offensively in its 1st game, take the road side here and back BREWERS (+106).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There’s not great value on the spread, as the Brewers are far too expensive, while the Mets are too risky. Ultimately, play the moneyline regardless.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 7.5 (-115).
The Mets have too much firepower to stay down for too long. Marte, SS Francisco Lindor and 1B Pete Alonso should be able to help New York generate some offense, and they won’t be going against a starter as good as Peralta either.
With the pitching not quite as good as it was on Opening Day, expect more runs here, and with a total as low as this, take the OVER 7.5 (-115) for a small unit.
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow @nathanbeighle_ on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]