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The Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets open their seasons with the 1st game of a 3-game set Friday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Brewers won 6-1 last season, including 3-1 at Citi Field
The Brewers and Mets were rained out on Thursday, with the game pushed to Friday with a much more favorable forecast.
Brewers at Mets projected starters
RHP Freddy Peralta vs. LHP Jose Quintana
Peralta (12-10, 3.86 ERA) made 30 starts in 2023. He posted a 1.12 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 in 165 2/3 innings.
- 2023 road splits: 5-6, 4.34 ERA (76 2/3 IP, 37 ER — 12 HR), 29 BB, 83 K in 14 starts
- 2023 vs. Mets: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 1 start, a 10-0 home win April 3
Quintana (3-6, 3.57 ERA) made 13 starts in 2023. He posted a 1.31 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 75 2/3 innings.
- 2023 home splits: 1-2, 2.76 ERA (32 2/3 IP, 210 ER — 2 HR), 9 BB, 23 K in 6 starts
- Did not face the Brewers in 2023
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Brewers at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:47 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Brewers -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Mets -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+155) | Mets +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Brewers at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 4, Mets 3
Moneyline
The BREWERS (-105) are worth playing on the road in this opener. It’s all about Peralta, who has emerged as a solid option at the front of the rotation. The Mets cannot be trusted, as the southpaw Quintana was shaky in 2023, and he is only going to get worse.
There is plenty of risk, as Milwaukee was just 22-26 against left-handed starting pitchers last season, and the Brewers are expected to have a bit of a backslide after winning 92 games a season ago.
Still, it’s hard to ignore the fact Milwaukee won 6 of the 7 head-to-head meetings last season.
Run line/Against the spread
The Mets +1.5 (-190) will cost nearly 2 times your potential return if you need a little insurance, and that’s just too expensive. If you like New York, just play the Mets straight up.
PASS.
Over/Under
UNDER 7.5 (-110) is the lean, but go with a half unit at most. The total was 3-0-1 in the 4 Milwaukee-New York meetings at Citi Field a season ago.
Milwaukee is expected to struggle offensively this season, after winning the NL Central Division a year ago. New York should be a little better, but having to deal with Peralta in the opener likely will get the offense off on the wrong foot.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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