March Madness: Vermont vs. Duke odds, picks and predictions

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The 13th-seeded Vermont Catamounts (28-6) battle the No. 4 seed Duke Blue Devils (24-8) Friday in the 1st Round of the South Region. Tip from Barclays Center in Brooklyn is set for 7:10 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Vermont vs. Duke odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.

Vermont is on a 10-game win streak after taking down UMass Lowell 66-61 Saturday in the America East Tournament title game. However, the Catamounts failed to cover as 8.5-point home favorites, marking the 4th consecutive game they didn’t cover the spread. G Shamir Bogues scored a team-high 15 points, leading 4 Vermont players in double figures, but the Catamounts only shot 35.6% from the field in the win.

Duke enters on a 2-game skid, recently getting upset as an 11-point favorite by NC State 74-69 in an ACC quarterfinal March 14. The Blue Devils lost despite C Kyle Filipowski scoring a game-high 28 points with a team-best 14 rebounds.

Duke is ranked No. 14 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.

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Vermont vs. Duke odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:45 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Vermont +600 (bet $100 to win $600) | Duke -900 (bet $900 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Vermont +11.5 (+100) | Duke -11.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 132.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Vermont vs. Duke picks and predictions

Prediction

Duke 72, Vermont 57

Moneyline

PASS.

There is no value on Duke (-900), who has a net rating of 10, to beat Vermont, who has a net rating of 102. It’s just not wise to risk 9 times the potential profit here.

Against the spread

BET DUKE -11.5 (-120).

As mentioned, Vermont is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 outings, and is 14-18 ATS for the season. Scoring 68 points or fewer in 4 of its last 6 games, Vermont does not have the firepower to keep up with Duke.

The Blue Devils are 18-14 ATS this season, including 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. Their strong point is their defense, which has allowed 64 or fewer points in 3 of its last 5 games. That will be the key factor in Duke covering here.

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Over/Under

BET UNDER 132.5 (-110).

While this is a statistically low total, the Catamounts have a 9-23 O/U record this season, while the Blue Devils are 13-19 O/U.

Both teams have identical 2-8 O/U showings in their last 10 games with Vermont hitting the Under in 5 of its last 6 and Duke hitting the Under in 4 of its last 5. The Catamounts’ lack of offense combined with the Blue Devils’ defense is a perfect recipe for the Under.

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