After their beatdown of the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football, the Baltimore Ravens are being regarded by most as the best team in football, and understandably so.
On top of that, their superstar quarterback, Lamar Jackson, is now the front-runner to be named the league’s most valuable player.
While it wouldn’t be a stretch by any means for Jackson to win his second MVP, allow me to make the case for another quarterback. He wears No. 17 in Buffalo, and without him, the Bills on-the-field product would resemble that of what we saw in 2007 with Trent Edwards and J.P. Losman. He is the best dual-threat quarterback in the league, and maybe the best quarterback in the league right now, period. He is the Bills’ gladiator. He is Josh Allen. And he will get his respect in this life or the next.
Now, this isn’t going to be a long soliloquy aimed at dragging Lamar Jackson down- he is fantastic, and deserve all the admiration that is being thrown his way. Rather, it is to point out that Allen may be the most disrespected player in the NFL right now, and why it’s asinine to just brush his MVP candidacy under the rug.
Look at Allen’s production this season. He leads all players in the NFL with 40 total touchdowns. This is also his fourth straight season with 40 total touchdowns, which is an NFL record. He also has 11 games this year where he has both thrown and rushed for a touchdown- that is also an NFL record. Allen is also seventh in the NFL in passing yards, third in passing touchdowns, and second in QBR.
Allen is also third in the NFL in EPA/play, as well as EPA+CPOE composite (min. 150 snaps). To compare, Jackson is 14th in EPA per play and 11th in EPA+CPOE composite. 538 also ranks Allen as the most valuable quarterback in the NFL. He leads all quarterbacks in Elo value, and total 538 Elo score- Jackson is sixth and eighth, respectively.
Allen’s 40 total touchdowns are also just four less than the Ravens’ offense has as a whole, and 16 more than Jackson currently sits with. Now, context is needed for the latter part of that argument because Gus Edwards and Justice Hill have been touchdown vultures inside the 10 yard-line. In past seasons, those close-range touchdowns would come off Jackson scrambles, more often than not, when the offense was under the direction of Greg Roman. Regardless, though, the numbers are still eye-popping, to say the least. To put a bow on this topic, though, I would say that if Allen’s interceptions are always highly scrutinized, his touchdowns deserve more attention, and the fact that Jackson does have so many fewer touchdowns should weigh into the MVP debate.
The biggest argument against Allen for MVP is his team’s record. The Bills are 9-6 and currently hold the No. 6 seed in the AFC. The Ravens are 12-3 and are the current No. 1 seed in the conference. To be fair, though, Josh Allen gave the Bills the lead with less than two minutes in regulation in three of their losses. If their defense holds strong in those games, we are having a very different conversation right now. However, the numbers are the numbers, and the records are the records. Fair or not, that’s how the debate will largely be judged.
If the Bills win out, though, and win the AFC East, Allen is the MVP of the league. To run the gauntlet they would have to run, beating the Chiefs, Cowboys, and sweeping the Dolphins to get to 11 wins, a division title, and all the aforementioned stats, there’s no way Allen couldn’t win his first MVP. Even if the Ravens do finish with the No. 1 seed, what Allen has done for the Bills in terms of his importance and his production would surpass Jackson. Even right now, his numbers are far better. While numbers don’t tell the entire story, they do tell a large chunk of it.
And the story they are telling right now is a tale of how Josh Allen is the league’s most valuable player.