Armed Forces Bowl: First Look At The James Madison Dukes

The Air Force Falcons will get a chance to topple one of this season’s top Group of 5 teams. How did the Dukes get here? 

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Armed Forces Bowl: First Look At The James Madison Dukes

Air Force will get a chance to topple one of this season’s top Group of 5 teams. How did the Dukes get here? 

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Could JMU be undone in the bowl by their success?

The Air Force Falcons are making their seventh appearance in the Armed Forces Bowl, but their opponent in this year’s iteration of the game might be their toughest assignment yet.

That’s because, among the Mountain West’s seven bowl opponents, the James Madison Dukes are the only team currently ranked in the top 25 of a poll. On the other hand, Air Force’s bowl foe is currently undergoing the rapid transition that tends to befall peaking Group of 5 teams, so how much of the JMU we’ve seen all year will actually be accounted for when they take the field later in December?

Here’s what Air Force fans need to know about the James Madison Dukes.

2023 James Madison Dukes — Team Profile

Conference: Sun Belt

2023 Record: 11-1 (7-1 Sun Belt)

SP+ ranking: 18th

FEI ranking: 33rd

Sagarin rating: 40th

Head coach: Damien Wroblewski (interim)

2023 in a nutshell: The Dukes had a wildly successful FBS debut in 2022, then raised their game this fall to become arguably the best team in the Group of 5. It wasn’t without a number of close calls — JMU’s first four wins against FBS opponents came by a combined 18 points — but it all counts the same in the win column and they ultimately took down eight different bowl-eligible teams on their way to the #24 spot in the most recent Associated Press poll.

As is the case for any peaking Group of 5 team, though, success has come with a cost since the end of the regular season. Head coach Curt Cignetti was hired away by Indiana, and he’ll be replaced by Holy Cross’s Bob Chesney at season’s end. A multitude of key on-field contributors have also hit the exits through the transfer portal, an exodus that has been the most significant of any of the Mountain West’s bowl opponents this month. In other words, for as good as the Dukes have looked in 2023, there’s a chance they could look much different when they take the field in Fort Worth.

Best wins: at Troy (11-2), at Coastal Carolina (7-5), at Marshall (6-6)

Key Players

Jordan McCloud, QB

After previous stints at USF and Arizona, McCloud hit his stride with the Dukes and might have been the Group of 5’s best quarterback this year. He finished 11th among FBS signal-callers with a 68.9% completion rate, 14th with 3,400 passing yards, tied for 16th with nine yards per attempt, and fifth with 32 passing touchdowns. McCloud was also dangerous with his legs, accounting for 311 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on the ground, so it’s little wonder that he was named the Sun Belt’s Player of the Year.

Elijah Sarratt, WR

In 2022, Sarratt stood out at FCS Saint Francis as a freshman All-American and a first-team all-NEC wide receiver. After transferring to JMU, he became one half of one of the most potent pass-catching duos anywhere in the country. He was one of six Dukes to earn a spot on the all-Sun Belt first-team offense after leading the team with 74 catches for 1,076 yards, scoring six touchdowns while also, according to Pro Football Focus, pacing the conference with a 89.1 receiving grade.

Reggie Brown, WR

As you might have surmised, Brown is the other half of James Madison’s dynamic pass-catching tandem. Like Surratt, Brown also landed on the Sun Belt’s first-team offense after catching 51 passes for 1,010 yards and nine touchdowns. In 20 career games at the FBS level, Brown has averaged 18.8 yards per catch, so he has the capacity to do real damage down the field if the Falcons are caught napping.

Jamree Kromah, DE

Though JMU landed six different players on the all-conference first team, Kromah is the fourth and last of that cohort still expected to take the field in the bowl game. The redshirt senior had a monster season with ten sacks and 19.5 tackles for loss while also tying for the team lead with 41 stops, per PFF, so there’s a strong case he could be the single-best defender that Air Force’s offensive tackles have faced all year.

D’Angelo Ponds, CB

The Dukes secondary appears to be in good hands thanks to Ponds, who became the program’s first freshman All-American ever after making nine starts in which he made 50 tackles, broke up 13 passes, and made two interceptions. According to Pro Football Focus, he also allowed a 46.5% completion rate on 71 targets, so Air Force may find it tough to stretch the field when the occasion calls for it.

Overview:

Offense

No matter how you slice it, the Dukes offense gave opponents plenty about which to worry this season, ranking 33rd in the country with an average of 2.68 points per drive and 52.1% of available yards earned per drive. The problem for the Armed Forces Bowl is that some significant contributors to an attack that averaged 6.28 yards per play are gone: McCloud will play in the bowl game before leaving through the transfer portal, but the top two running backs, Kaelon Black and Ty Son Newton, are gone, as are all-conference tight end Zach Horton, left guard Carter Miller, and three-year starting offensive lineman Tyler Stephens.

With Surratt and Brown in place, though, the passing game may be considered mostly intact, but senior Latrele Palmer is likely the next man up at running back. His time with the Dukes stretches back to 2019, and he’s averaged 4.8 yards per carry with 15 touchdowns on 425 career rushing attempts.

Others who might be in line for more snaps include wide receivers Phoenix Sproles (47 catches, 387 yards, three touchdowns) and Taji Hanson and tight end Kyi Wright. Sproles, at least, has seen the lion’s share of his playing time come from the slot (93.4% of snaps, per PFF), so chances are JMU won’t be shy about remaining a pass-first team.

Defense

The Dukes offense has taken some hits through the transfer portal, but a defense that ranked ninth nationally by percentage of available yards per drive allowed (35.4%) and points per drive allowed (1.41) and gave up an overall success rate of just 33% has been gutted. Jalen Green, the Sun Belt’s Defensive Player of the Year, was lost for the year to injury in early November. The team’s top three tacklers — Aidan Fisher, Jailin Walker, and Mikail Kamara — are gone to the transfer portal. So are veteran defensive tackle James Carpenter, a finalist for the Burlsworth Trophy this season; linebacker Taurus Jones, a first-team all-conference player in 2022; and top cornerback Chauncey Logan.

Kromah remains, but other established quantities in this unit are rare. The good news is that young talents like Ponds might be prepared to pick up the slack. Redshirt freshman Tyrique Tucker made five starts this year and collected 4.5 tackles for loss, and sophomore safety Jacob Thomas held opponents to a completion rate under 50%, according to Pro Football Focus.

When matching up with Air Force, however, the major question is just how disruptive the JMU defense will remain against a Falcons offense that will run first, second, and third. CollegeFootballData.com tabs the Dukes with an 26% havoc rate and a 28% stuff rate (for comparison, Air Force had respective rates of 15.2% and 17%).

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