Kelley Ford projections favor Texas in potential Big 12 title matchup

One metric would favor Texas by 14.5 points against likely Big 12 title opponent Oklahoma State.

The Texas Longhorns appear to be headed toward a Big 12 title game. Aside from the team’s 10-1 record and consistent product throughout the 2023 season, a few metrics favor Texas to make the championship game in Arlington.

Data analyst Kelley Ford shared conference title projections on Monday. According to the projections, the Texas Longhorns have a 94% chance to make the conference title game. The Oklahoma State Cowboys are given a 74% chance to reach Arlington.

Ford shared who would be favored to win the potential matchup. The model projects the Longhorns as 14.5 point favorites over the Cowboys.

Texas recent struggles’ against Oklahoma State are well documented. Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian alone is 0-2 against the Cowboys. Nevertheless, the projections make sense based on what we have seen from both teams this year.

Oklahoma State is heavily dependent on running back Ollie Gordon for offensive production. Texas has the No. 5 run defense in college football allowing just 82.7 yards per contest. If the teams play to a draw when Oklahoma State runs the ball, the Longhorns’ talent should overwhelm.

Texas has a strong chance to bring home its first Big 12 title since 2009. It can secure its place in the game with a win over Texas Tech on Friday.