As the final moments were passing away in Penn State’s Week 8 loss at Ohio State, a low-scoring defensive battle ending with a 20-12 final score, Penn State fans were being given a glimmer of hope with talk about the Big Ten’s tiebreaker rules. As it turns out, Penn State could potentially have the edge with the Penn State tiebreakers if it can avoid a loss the rest of the way this season.
While Penn State would lose to Ohio State in any two-team tiebreaker based on this head-to-head result, Penn State’s Big Ten title hopes rest on a potential three-team tiebreaker involving Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan. So, for the sake of argument, we need to assume Penn State’s hopes of playing for a Big Ten championship boil down to ending the regular season in a three-team tie with Ohio State and Michigan.
Under this scenario, we need to expect that Penn State will beat Michigan in their head-to-head matchup coming up in November. Of course, this is far easier said than done and Penn State will have to find a way to take down the two-time defending Big Ten champions.
So, how does the Big Ten’s tiebreaker work if three teams tie for the top spot in the division? Let’s go to the Big Ten tiebreaker outline from the conference’s official website.
The first three-team tiebreaker goes to the team with the best winning percentage in games between the tied teams. But if end up with Ohio State beating Penn State, Penn State beating Michigan, and Michigan beating Ohio State, then we move to the next tiebreaker.
The second tiebreaker is decided by the records of the three tied teams based on winning percentage within the division. Again, this settles nothing in this scenario, so we move on to the next tiebreaker.
The third tiebreaker is decided by the records of the three teams compared against the next highest placed teams in the division. Once more, this would settle nothing in this scenario of three 11-1 teams all handing each other a loss. On to the next tiebreaker.
The next tiebreaker is determined by winning percentage against all common conference opponents. So let’s just move on to the next tiebreaker, where things start to get tricky.
The fifth tiebreaker is determined by comparing the best cumulative conference-winning percentage of non-divisional opponents. Penn State could potentially gain an edge if Iowa comes out of the Big Ten West as the division champion. But we’ll see if that holds up.
The sixth tiebreaker is determined by comparing the highest-placed non-divisional teams in their division order of finish. Again, Iowa winning the Big Ten West could be a nice advantage for Penn State.
In brief, Penn State still has work to do. It cannot afford another loss and it will actually need some help anyway. It needs Ohio State to lose a conference game, and Michigan handing the Buckeyes a loss would be the most ideal situation. Of course, if Penn State simply wins out and gets some help from a school like Wisconsin (hosting Ohio State next week), things could just come down to what happens against Michigan in a few weeks.
So there is still a lot to play for this season for Penn State. And this is just talking about the Big Ten championship. The Nittany Lions could still remain on the College Football Playoff radar as the playoff rankings come into the picture.
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