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The Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros play Game 1 of the best-of-7 American League Championship Series Sunday. First pitch from Minute Maid Park is scheduled for 8:16 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Rangers vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Regular-season series: Astros won 9-4
The Rangers hit the road, and they have been comfortable in such games in these playoffs. Texas has won 4 in a row away from home, sweeping the AL-Wild Card in St. Petersburg against the Tampa Bay Rays, while winning both games at Camden Yards against the Baltimore Orioles in the ALDS. Overall, Texas has won all 5 playoff games to date, including 4 as an underdog.
There has been a lot of noise about time off for higher seeds in these MLB playoffs, but that didn’t seem to bother the Astros. They took care of the Minnesota Twins in 4 games, including a pair of road wins in Games 3 and 4 to close things out. The Over is 3-1 in 4 playoff games for the Astros to-date.
Rangers at Astros projected starters
LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. RHP Justin Verlander
Montgomery made 32 starts in the regular season with the Cardinals and Rangers, going 10-11 with a 3.20 ERA. He had a 1.19 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 over 188 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 9 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 11-8 road win vs. the Baltimore Orioles in Game 2 of the ALDS last Sunday
- 2023 road splits: 3-6, 2.73 ERA (89 IP, 27 ER), 8 HR in 15 starts
- Making his 4th career postseason start and 5th overall appearance
Verlander was 13-8 with a 3.22 ERA across 27 regular-season starts with the Mets and Astros. He had a 1.13 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 162 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 6-4 home win vs. the Minnesota Twins in Game 1 of the ALDS
- 2023 home splits: 6-5, 3.23 ERA (86 1/3 IP, 31 ER), 12 HR in 14 starts in the regular season
- Making his 36th career postseason start and 37th overall appearance
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Rangers at Astros odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 10:30 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rangers +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Astros -142 (bet $142 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rangers +1.5 (-182) | Astros -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -102)
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Rangers at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 4, Rangers 3
Moneyline
The ASTROS (-142) are a decent play at home in this series opener, especially behind the experienced Verlander.
The Rangers (+120) have been on an amazing run, winning all 5 playoff games to date, including 4 in a row on the road. However, Houston has been the kryptonite to these super Rangers this season, winning 9 of 13 regular-season meetings. It will be close, though, as Texas is 3-3 in 6 visits to MMP.
Run line/Against the spread
The Rangers +1.5 (-182) are a little too expensive for my liking on the run line, if you want some insurance. My personal limit for a singular wager is -180, and this is just over the threshold.
Texas has been a great story, and I envision a tight, well-pitched game. But the Astros are a better bet on the money line.
AVOID the run line for now.
Over/Under
The UNDER 8.5 (-102) is a strong play in this series opener.
If you’re letting regular-season trends steer the ship, then this looks like a bad play. The Over has cashed in the past 4 meetings between these Lone Star State rivals, while going 4-1 in the past 5 meetings in Houston.
However, Verlander was filthy against the Twins in Game 1, and the Under was 3-1 in his final 4 regular-season starts. As the intensity ratchets up, the runs seem to be fewer and further between when he is on the hill.
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