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The SMU Mustangs (3-2, 1-0 AAC) face the East Carolina Pirates (1-4, 0-1) Thursday. Kickoff from Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the SMU vs. East Carolina odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
SMU enters as a 12.5-point favorite with both American Athletic Conference teams having byes last week. Mustangs’ QB Preston Stone has completed 58.8% of his passes (94 of 160) for 1191 yards, 11 TDs, and 5 INTs while RB Jaylan Knighton has run for 332 yards and 2 TDs on 51 carries.
East Carolina has had a rough start to its season and a big reason for that is their struggles at the quarterback position. QB Alex Flinn has completed just 49.1% of his passes (55 of 112) for 611 yards, 1 TD, and 5 INTs. Most of the Pirates’ TDs have come on the ground (8).
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SMU at East Carolina odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 12:13 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): SMU -450 (bet $450 to win $100) | East Carolina +333 (bet $100 to win $333)
- Against the spread (ATS): SMU -12.5 (-110) | East Carolina +12.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 49.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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SMU at East Carolina picks and predictions
Prediction
SMU 32, East Carolina 14
Moneyline
PASS.
SMU should pick up the win here, but a -450 favorite is never worth betting on. Bet on the spread and/or total instead.
Against the spread
BET SMU -12.5 (-110).
SMU is a much better team and I expect an offense that averages 433.8 yards per game to shred this Pirates defense. SMU does have a defense that allows 315.6 yards per game, but this East Carolina offense is not good enough to exploit that weakness. Look for Flinn to turn the ball over and have trouble completing any meaningful passes, making it easy for the Mustangs to cover.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 49.5 (-110).
Only 1 of SMU’s 5 games and only 1 of East Carolina’s 5 games this season has hit the Over number. East Carolina has a horrible defense that allows more yards per game (331.6) than the offense produces (304.2) and that will make scoring for SMU easy. However, I don’t expect the Pirates’ offense to be able to score enough to push this game to hit the Over.
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